Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years28.7rank 60 of 197 · 3 years: 29.2
Worst case−20.0%Energy supply shock · tail −19.4%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.4rank 130 of 197 · 3 years: −6.4
Best case+11Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.14expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; share of exports going to china and the united states; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Nicaragua’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.87
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.83
Pandemic S14−0.83
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.76
Global financial crisis S03−0.73
Disaster in the core S10−0.68
Chokepoint closure S05−0.66
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.59
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.59
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Mass displacement S08−0.28
Food and water shock S11−0.28
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.84 | −0.87 | −1.06 | −0.47 | ▼ 4 | 28 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.73 | −0.83 | −0.99 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.69 | −0.83 | −1.02 | −0.46 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.71 | −0.76 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 4 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.62 | −0.73 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 21 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.5 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.84 | −0.68 | −0.92 | −0.40 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.69 | −0.66 | −0.81 | −0.36 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Maritime Power 1.1 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.50 | −0.59 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.8 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.68 | −0.59 | −0.68 | −0.30 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.54 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.31 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.63 | −0.48 | −0.58 | −0.26 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.28 | −0.38 | −0.17 | 0 | 8 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.28 | −0.28 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 5 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 3.6 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.21 | −0.19 | −0.23 | −0.10 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −1.24 | −0.46 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −1.16 | −1.38 | −1.33 | −1.18 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.64 | −1.28 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.14 | −1.07 | −1.04 | −0.91 |
| Pandemic | −0.64 | −0.46 | −0.38 | −1.12 | −0.98 | −1.05 | −0.98 | −0.96 | −0.96 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.60 | −0.43 | −0.39 | · | −1.01 | −0.97 | −1.01 | −0.99 | −1.48 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.29 | −0.37 | −0.34 | −0.75 | −0.75 | −0.93 | −1.24 | −1.07 | −0.85 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.05 | −1.41 | −0.42 | −1.04 | −0.47 | −1.18 | −0.63 | −0.47 | −0.47 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.09 | −0.91 | · | −0.49 | −1.05 | −0.42 | −0.84 | −1.08 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.49 | −0.27 | −0.68 | −0.61 | −0.84 | −1.02 | −0.61 | −0.70 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.33 | · | −0.86 | −0.44 | −1.03 | −1.44 | −1.18 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.52 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.67 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.62 | −0.27 | −0.35 | −0.43 | · | −0.87 | · | −0.88 | −0.88 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.29 | −0.21 | −0.58 | −0.48 | −0.66 | −0.28 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.32 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.37 | −0.40 | −0.18 | −0.32 | −0.36 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.12 | −0.31 | −0.34 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Nicaragua is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+11.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.5
Middle East settlement S21+3.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+3.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+1.8
Great-power détente S18−5.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−12.6
Yield revolution S22−15.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−25.4
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +11.0 | 12.4 | 1.5 | 14 | 87 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.5 | 15.6 | 9.1 | 26 | 102 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +3.5 | 10.6 | 7.2 | 25 | 119 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.5 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +3.1 | 10.0 | 6.9 | 17 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +1.8 | 5.2 | 3.4 | 24 | 118 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 15.3 | 21.0 | 23 | 144 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.4 | 9.9 | 19.3 | 15 | 145 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −12.6 | 10.5 | 23.1 | 18 | 144 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −15.6 | 6.3 | 21.9 | 16 | 170 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −25.4 | 4.7 | 30.2 | 10 | 139 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |