Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · ZMB

Zambia

Baseline index 4.93Rank 121 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years26.9rank 67 of 197 · 3 years: 28.2
Worst case−20.1%Energy supply shock · tail −18.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+3.0rank 76 of 197 · 3 years: +1.6
Best case+19Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed21%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.15expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; consumer price inflation; industry as a share of gdp; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Zambia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.99
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.87
Global financial crisis S03−0.83
Chokepoint closure S05−0.72
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69
Pandemic S14−0.68
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.60
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.58
AI diffusion shock S13−0.54
Food and water shock S11−0.51
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.50
Disaster in the core S10−0.50
Mass displacement S08−0.44
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.99−0.99−1.25−0.56▼ 626Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.79−0.87−1.13−0.50▼ 423Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.72−0.83−1.06−0.47▼ 222Economic Output & Productivity 3.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.77−0.72−0.89−0.39▼ 317Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.61−0.69−0.84−0.37▲ 320Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.56−0.68−0.83−0.37▲ 219Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.84−0.60−0.76−0.35▼ 211Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.81−0.58−0.80−0.36▼ 215Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.2 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.50−0.54−0.65−0.29▲ 211Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.51−0.51−0.67−0.29▼ 215Population Health 4.5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.47−0.50−0.63−0.28▲ 411Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.62−0.50−0.67−0.29013Energy Infrastructure 4.4 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08High 0.66−0.44−0.58−0.26▼ 213Health System Capability 4.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.22−0.20−0.24−0.10▲ 24Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.18−1.40−0.49−0.58−0.58−1.31−1.55−1.50−1.33
Sovereign funding crisis−0.09−0.73−0.39−1.01−0.91−1.25−1.51−0.91−1.04
Global financial crisis−0.33−0.42−0.36−0.84−0.84−1.05−1.41−1.20−0.96
Chokepoint closure−0.09−1.20−0.86·−0.54−1.16−0.46−0.93−1.19
Infrastructure collapse−0.61−1.06−0.36−0.38−0.38−0.94−0.88−0.86−0.76
Pandemic−0.55−0.37−0.29−0.90−0.79−0.84−0.79−0.77−0.77
Single-supplier cut-off−0.78−0.34−0.42−0.54·−1.10·−1.12−1.12
Legitimacy crisis−0.34·−0.81−0.44−1.02−1.42−1.17··
AI diffusion shock−0.51−0.31−0.27−0.82−0.61−0.85−0.72−0.40−0.35
Food and water shock−0.06−0.58−0.26−0.71−0.67−0.72−0.34−0.58−0.66
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.47−0.28−0.25·−0.65−0.63−0.65−0.64−0.96
Disaster in the core−0.03−1.05−0.30−0.77−0.35−0.87−0.46−0.35−0.35
Mass displacement·−0.45−0.32−0.91−0.75−1.03−0.43−0.05·
Hybrid campaign−0.14−0.33−0.32·−0.36−0.34·−0.14−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Zambia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+18.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+17.6
Energy abundance S16+15.5
Middle East settlement S21+12.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+12.2
Yield revolution S22+8.3
Great-power détente S18+4.9
100-day pandemic defence S24−1.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−1.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+18.824.55.72927Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+17.621.03.3345Health System Capability 6.3 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+15.516.61.11870Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+12.718.05.33068Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Gainer+12.215.93.72033Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+8.312.03.62040Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+4.911.66.72779Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−1.19.510.619153Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−1.517.418.91986Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−22.74.627.312123Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception