Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · HTI

Haiti

Baseline index 2.02Rank 189 of 197InceptionLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years63.6rank 8 of 197 · 3 years: 62.5
Worst case−46.9%Energy supply shock · tail −43.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−14.6rank 183 of 197 · 3 years: −14.6
Best case+4Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed8%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.30expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp; consumer price inflation; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Haiti’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.95
Disaster in the core S10−0.87
Food and water shock S11−0.83
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.78
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.72
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.71
Pandemic S14−0.68
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Chokepoint closure S05−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.55
AI diffusion shock S13−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.40
Mass displacement S08−0.24
Hybrid campaign S06−0.17
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.86−0.95−1.01−0.4708Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.92−0.87−0.96−0.43▼ 510National Resilience & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.72−0.83−0.91−0.41▼ 210Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.68−0.78−0.84−0.38▼ 27Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.91−0.72−0.76−0.37▼ 33Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.55−0.71−0.77−0.34▲ 18Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.1 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.53−0.68−0.74−0.3308Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.43−0.56−0.61−0.27▲ 37Investment Attraction & Projection 0.5 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.56−0.56−0.60−0.28▲ 25Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.49−0.55−0.60−0.2705Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.49−0.55−0.59−0.26▲ 17Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.53−0.40−0.43−0.2005Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.30−0.24−0.26−0.12▲ 23Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.2 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.18−0.17−0.18−0.08▲ 13Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.26−0.42−0.60−0.60−1.35−1.60−1.52−1.17
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.79−0.43−1.38−0.62−1.54−0.83−0.62−0.62
Food and water shock−0.04−0.90−0.35−1.18−1.13−1.21−0.56−0.97−1.10
Infrastructure collapse−0.19−1.27−0.34−0.47−0.47−1.18−1.10−1.08−0.94
Legitimacy crisis−0.19·−0.81−0.63−1.28−1.91−1.67··
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.60−0.28−0.83−0.75−1.03−1.25−0.75−0.86
Pandemic−0.19−0.40−0.28−0.98−0.86−0.92−0.86−0.84−0.84
Global financial crisis−0.12−0.29−0.23−0.59−0.59−0.74−0.98−0.84−0.67
Chokepoint closure−0.04−0.95−0.54·−0.45−0.97−0.39−0.77−0.92
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.19−0.33−0.26·−0.78−0.75−0.78−0.76−1.10
AI diffusion shock−0.19−0.34−0.26−0.91−0.68−0.94−0.80−0.44−0.39
Single-supplier cut-off−0.19−0.26−0.28−0.41·−0.82·−0.84−0.84
Mass displacement·−0.25−0.16−0.50−0.41−0.56−0.24−0.03·
Hybrid campaign−0.05−0.30−0.26·−0.33−0.31·−0.13−0.13

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Haiti is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+3.9
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.7
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.9
Middle East settlement S21−3.8
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−14.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−16.3
Great-power détente S18−20.5
Yield revolution S22−21.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−46.2
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+3.95.71.87120Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+3.77.94.211131Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−0.93.54.411155Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed−3.85.08.812155Internal Security & Order 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−5.73.18.87173Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−14.55.419.98151Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−16.35.722.07178Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−20.55.526.011183Investment Attraction & Projection 1.7 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−21.15.326.47190Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−46.21.847.95195Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception