Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years4.9rank 186 of 197 · 3 years: 5.1
Worst case−3.6%Pandemic · tail −3.4%
Opportunity · 10 years+31.9rank 8 of 197 · 3 years: +33.0
Best case+66Energy abundance · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed59%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.06expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; few months of imports covered by reserves; refugees hosted per head of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Sweden’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.55
Energy supply shock S09−0.54
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.47
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Chokepoint closure S05−0.44
Global financial crisis S03−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.39
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.23
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Mass displacement S08−0.17
Disaster in the core S10−0.14
Food and water shock S11−0.09
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.89 | −0.55 | −1.38 | −0.53 | 0 | 15 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.9 · Established |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.93 | −0.54 | −1.19 | −0.48 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 9.5 · Transitional |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.81 | −0.47 | −1.17 | −0.47 | 0 | 11 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 14 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.85 | −0.45 | −1.17 | −0.44 | 0 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.9 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.80 | −0.44 | −0.94 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.69 | −0.40 | −1.03 | −0.40 | 0 | 9 | Economic Output & Productivity 14.7 · Established |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.65 | −0.39 | −0.91 | −0.38 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.73 | −0.33 | −0.74 | −0.30 | 0 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 8.9 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.26 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 10 | Maritime Power 12 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.40 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.22 | 0 | 4 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 13.9 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.21 | 0 | 7 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 13.4 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.53 | −0.17 | −0.47 | −0.17 | 0 | 3 | Internal Security & Order 15.4 · Advanced |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.36 | −0.14 | −0.39 | −0.14 | 0 | 5 | Transport Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.17 | −0.09 | −0.23 | −0.09 | 0 | 4 | Resource Infrastructure 10.5 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.70 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.62 | −0.60 | −0.60 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.13 | −0.76 | −0.28 | −0.31 | −0.31 | −0.71 | −0.84 | −0.81 | −0.72 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.59 | −0.68 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.24 | −0.61 | −0.57 | −0.56 | −0.49 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.59 | −0.24 | −0.22 | −0.65 | −0.49 | −0.67 | −0.57 | −0.31 | −0.28 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −0.73 | −0.62 | · | −0.33 | −0.70 | −0.28 | −0.56 | −0.72 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −0.50 | −0.67 | −0.58 | −0.46 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.18 | · | −0.48 | −0.46 | −0.48 | −0.47 | −0.70 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.63 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.27 | · | −0.55 | · | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.20 | −0.43 | −0.46 | · | −0.47 | −0.44 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.19 | −0.11 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.32 | −0.39 | −0.24 | −0.27 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.16 | · | −0.31 | −0.16 | −0.36 | −0.51 | −0.42 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.17 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.39 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.29 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.10 | −0.24 | −0.13 | −0.10 | −0.10 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.12 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Sweden is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+66.3
100-day pandemic defence S24+62.4
Middle East settlement S21+43.4
Great-power détente S18+41.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15+36.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+24.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+14.2
Emerging-market breakout S20+11.8
Yield revolution S22+2.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +66.3 | 70.0 | 3.7 | 71 | 5 | Energy Technologies 12.6 · Established |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +62.4 | 63.3 | 1.0 | 76 | 3 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 14 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +43.4 | 45.8 | 2.4 | 77 | 6 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 15 · Advanced |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +41.1 | 46.2 | 5.1 | 78 | 9 | Export Capability & Sophistication 15.3 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +36.8 | 45.2 | 8.3 | 64 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 9.8 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +24.1 | 34.0 | 10.0 | 81 | 8 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 15.6 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +14.2 | 17.1 | 2.9 | 82 | 12 | Financial Infrastructure 16 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.8 | 17.6 | 5.7 | 78 | 66 | Transport Infrastructure 15.3 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 6.5 | 3.9 | 71 | 79 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 12.5 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +0.3 | 3.2 | 2.9 | 83 | 136 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced |