Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Acute fragility. Every scenario is severe; there is little capability left to lose. One of 13 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years66.5rank 7 of 197 · 3 years: 65.4
Worst case−65.9%Food and water shock · tail −55.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−14.0rank 181 of 197 · 3 years: −17.1
Best case+6Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed5%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.08expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkEnergy Infrastructureweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; low real gdp per head; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; consumer price inflation; youth unemployment rate; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Yemen’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Food and water shock S11−1.07
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.87
Chokepoint closure S05−0.75
Energy supply shock S09−0.68
Global financial crisis S03−0.65
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.60
Pandemic S14−0.51
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.47
AI diffusion shock S13−0.45
Mass displacement S08−0.35
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.34
Disaster in the core S10−0.33
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.30
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.97 | −1.07 | −1.13 | −0.56 | ▼ 2 | 6 | Early Childhood Development 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.70 | −0.87 | −0.89 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.73 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.38 | ▼ 1 | 4 | Energy Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.59 | −0.68 | −0.71 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.49 | −0.65 | −0.68 | −0.31 | 0 | 5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.76 | −0.60 | −0.62 | −0.33 | 0 | 5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.38 | −0.51 | −0.54 | −0.24 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.39 | −0.47 | −0.50 | −0.23 | ▲ 2 | 6 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.39 | −0.45 | −0.47 | −0.22 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.44 | −0.35 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 5 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.28 | −0.34 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 1 | 1 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Low 0.33 | −0.33 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Energy Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.38 | −0.30 | −0.32 | −0.15 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.26 | −0.28 | −0.12 | ▼ 1 | 2 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −1.32 | −0.60 | −1.60 | −1.42 | −1.38 | −0.77 | −1.18 | −1.31 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.77 | −0.45 | −1.12 | −1.00 | −1.21 | −1.11 | −0.97 | −1.15 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.27 | −1.07 | · | −0.59 | −1.19 | −0.50 | −0.97 | −1.15 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −0.99 | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.91 | −1.02 | −1.06 | −0.85 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.18 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.71 | −0.71 | −0.87 | −1.08 | −0.89 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −1.04 | −0.54 | −1.17 | −1.34 | −1.13 | · | · |
| Pandemic | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.24 | −0.71 | −0.62 | −0.66 | −0.62 | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.19 | −0.77 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.69 | −0.62 | −0.63 | −0.55 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.19 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.55 | −0.70 | −0.64 | −0.35 | −0.32 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.73 | −0.60 | −0.82 | −0.35 | −0.04 | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.18 | · | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.45 | −0.68 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.69 | −0.21 | −0.51 | −0.23 | −0.58 | −0.31 | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.19 | −0.19 | −0.24 | −0.29 | · | −0.55 | · | −0.61 | −0.61 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.11 | −0.43 | −0.47 | · | −0.48 | −0.45 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Yemen is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.7
Middle East settlement S21+3.2
Energy abundance S16+0.6
Yield revolution S22+0.1
Sovereign debt reset S19−5.0
100-day pandemic defence S24−6.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−8.4
Great-power détente S18−16.3
Digital state leapfrog S23−24.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−41.8
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 5.8 | 0.1 | 8 | 115 | Investment Attraction & Projection 1 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +3.2 | 7.8 | 4.6 | 10 | 120 | Energy Infrastructure 1.6 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +0.6 | 3.4 | 2.8 | 5 | 130 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +0.1 | 4.8 | 4.7 | 5 | 97 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 4.2 | 9.2 | 7 | 186 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 1 · Inception |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −6.8 | 2.0 | 8.8 | 5 | 183 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 3.3 | 11.7 | 5 | 120 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −16.3 | 1.8 | 18.0 | 7 | 180 | Export Capability & Sophistication 1 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −24.2 | 3.7 | 27.9 | 5 | 196 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −41.8 | 1.3 | 43.1 | 3 | 187 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |