Nigeria · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.8rank 135 of 197 · 3 years: 12.2

Worst case−9.9%Food and water shock · tail −9.2%

Opportunity · 10 years+3.2rank 75 of 197 · 3 years: +3.1

Best case+22Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.65expected index points from best practice

Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Single-supplier cut-off, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; consumer price inflation; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15; remittances relative to gdp; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Nigeria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Food and water shock S11−0.73

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.70

Pandemic S14−0.62

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.53

Global financial crisis S03−0.50

AI diffusion shock S13−0.50

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.49

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.45

Disaster in the core S10−0.45

Mass displacement S08−0.37

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.34

Energy supply shock S09−0.34

Chokepoint closure S05−0.22

Hybrid campaign S06−0.17

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Food and water shock S11	High 0.79	−0.73	−1.05	−0.46	▼ 4	21	Population Health 2.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.66	−0.70	−0.95	−0.41	▲ 2	22	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.55	−0.62	−0.86	−0.38	0	17	Population Health 3.1 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.76	−0.53	−0.77	−0.34	▼ 2	13	Internal Security & Order 5.8 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.49	−0.50	−0.73	−0.32	▲ 1	12	Labour & Employment 4.5 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.48	−0.50	−0.66	−0.29	▲ 3	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.72	−0.49	−0.72	−0.32	0	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.44	−0.45	−0.64	−0.28	0	12	Energy Infrastructure 6.3 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.58	−0.45	−0.63	−0.28	▼ 2	17	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.59	−0.37	−0.52	−0.23	▼ 1	13	Foundational Education 5 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.36	−0.34	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 3	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.4 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.37	−0.34	−0.48	−0.21	▲ 3	10	Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.27	−0.22	−0.32	−0.14	▲ 5	9	Maritime Power 5.7 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.17	−0.25	−0.11	▲ 3	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.2 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Food and water shock	−0.08	−0.84	−0.38	−1.02	−0.97	−1.04	−0.49	−0.84	−0.95
Infrastructure collapse	−0.87	−1.02	−0.36	−0.36	−0.36	−0.91	−0.85	−0.83	−0.73
Pandemic	−0.66	−0.33	−0.27	−0.80	−0.70	−0.75	−0.70	−0.68	−0.68
Legitimacy crisis	−0.39	·	−0.78	−0.39	−0.91	−1.27	−1.04	·	·
Global financial crisis	−0.25	−0.25	−0.22	−0.50	−0.50	−0.62	−0.83	−0.71	−0.57
AI diffusion shock	−0.65	−0.27	−0.24	−0.72	−0.54	−0.74	−0.63	−0.35	−0.31
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.93	−0.26	−0.33	−0.41	·	−0.83	·	−0.84	−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.37	−0.21	−0.52	−0.47	−0.64	−0.78	−0.47	−0.53
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.93	−0.28	−0.69	−0.31	−0.78	−0.41	−0.31	−0.31
Mass displacement	·	−0.38	−0.28	−0.77	−0.63	−0.86	−0.37	−0.04	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.44	−0.18	−0.16	·	−0.43	−0.41	−0.43	−0.42	−0.63
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−0.47	−0.18	−0.20	−0.20	−0.44	−0.53	−0.51	−0.45
Chokepoint closure	−0.03	−0.36	−0.30	·	−0.16	−0.35	−0.14	−0.28	−0.36
Hybrid campaign	−0.13	−0.28	−0.30	·	−0.31	−0.29	·	−0.12	−0.12

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Nigeria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+22.4

Yield revolution S22+22.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+15.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.8

Great-power détente S18+7.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+7.4

100-day pandemic defence S24+5.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−12.9

Middle East settlement S21−23.8

Energy abundance S16−51.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+22.4	29.0	6.5	36	16	Foundational Education 6.3 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+22.3	25.5	3.2	33	9	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.6 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+15.7	23.1	7.3	28	24	Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	10.7	2.9	39	44	Health System Capability 7.3 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+7.6	13.3	5.7	38	65	Export Capability & Sophistication 6.7 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+7.4	25.5	18.1	29	37	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+5.2	14.0	8.9	28	103	Population Health 4.3 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−12.9	7.9	20.8	20	73	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Loser	−23.8	11.7	35.5	41	175	Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−51.3	6.1	57.4	29	177	Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent