Poland · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years8.5rank 160 of 197 · 3 years: 9.0

Worst case−5.1%Energy supply shock · tail −5.0%

Opportunity · 10 years+17.0rank 28 of 197 · 3 years: +17.3

Best case+51Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed48%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.34expected index points from best practice

Breadth7 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: land border with russia or belarus; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Poland’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.64

Energy supply shock S09−0.63

AI diffusion shock S13−0.58

Global financial crisis S03−0.55

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.52

Hybrid campaign S06−0.51

Chokepoint closure S05−0.48

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.44

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41

Mass displacement S08−0.33

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.27

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.24

Disaster in the core S10−0.21

Food and water shock S11−0.18

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.79	−0.64	−1.22	−0.53	▼ 1	16	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.89	−0.63	−1.15	−0.50	▼ 2	14	Energy Technologies 7.9 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.80	−0.58	−1.10	−0.48	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.9 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.72	−0.55	−1.07	−0.47	▼ 1	15	Investment Attraction & Projection 11.6 · Transitional
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.68	−0.52	−0.98	−0.43	0	11	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 9.1 · Transitional
Hybrid campaign S06	High 0.93	−0.51	−1.03	−0.45	▼ 2	14	Maritime Power 7.4 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.75	−0.48	−0.89	−0.39	▼ 1	11	Maritime Power 7.5 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.58	−0.44	−0.82	−0.36	▼ 1	7	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.79	−0.41	−0.80	−0.35	▼ 1	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.76	−0.33	−0.67	−0.29	▼ 1	10	Health System Capability 11.9 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.35	−0.27	−0.51	−0.22	0	4	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 10 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.44	−0.24	−0.45	−0.19	0	7	Justice System & Fundamental Rights 11.6 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.40	−0.21	−0.44	−0.19	▲ 1	4	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.27	−0.18	−0.36	−0.16	0	4	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.3 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.68	−0.34	−0.28	−0.82	−0.72	−0.77	−0.72	−0.70	−0.70
Energy supply shock	−0.15	−0.88	−0.33	−0.37	−0.37	−0.82	−0.97	−0.94	−0.83
AI diffusion shock	−0.76	−0.32	−0.28	−0.84	−0.63	−0.87	−0.74	−0.41	−0.36
Global financial crisis	−0.28	−0.28	−0.25	−0.55	−0.55	−0.69	−0.92	−0.79	−0.63
Infrastructure collapse	−0.65	−0.76	−0.27	−0.27	−0.27	−0.68	−0.64	−0.62	−0.54
Hybrid campaign	−0.38	−0.83	−0.90	·	−0.92	−0.87	·	−0.35	−0.35
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.78	−0.66	·	−0.35	−0.75	−0.30	−0.60	−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.56	−0.23	−0.21	·	−0.54	−0.52	−0.54	−0.53	−0.80
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.78	−0.21	−0.27	−0.33	·	−0.68	·	−0.69	−0.69
Mass displacement	·	−0.34	−0.25	−0.68	−0.56	−0.77	−0.33	−0.04	·
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.03	−0.23	−0.13	−0.31	−0.28	−0.39	−0.47	−0.28	−0.32
Legitimacy crisis	−0.17	·	−0.35	−0.17	−0.40	−0.56	−0.46	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.01	−0.44	−0.13	−0.33	−0.15	−0.37	−0.20	−0.15	−0.15
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.21	−0.09	−0.25	−0.24	−0.26	−0.12	−0.21	−0.24

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Poland is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+51.1

100-day pandemic defence S24+41.7

Middle East settlement S21+37.3

Great-power détente S18+15.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15+13.2

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+8.7

Digital state leapfrog S23+5.9

Yield revolution S22+1.0

Emerging-market breakout S20−1.3

Sovereign debt reset S19−2.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+51.1	51.3	0.2	56	16	Energy Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+41.7	43.4	1.7	60	25	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+37.3	38.2	0.9	62	14	Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+15.6	32.8	17.2	62	42	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 11.8 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+13.2	30.7	17.4	45	28	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+8.7	33.9	25.2	60	49	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+5.9	13.2	7.3	60	45	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.8 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+1.0	8.0	7.0	60	92	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11.2 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−1.3	12.9	14.2	62	162	Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−2.1	4.1	6.2	63	165	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established