Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Gulf and Middle East · LBN

Lebanon

Baseline index 4.66Rank 127 of 197NascentGulf and Middle EastAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years30.5rank 55 of 197 · 3 years: 29.2
Worst case−21.8%Global financial crisis · tail −21.0%
Opportunity · 10 years−3.8rank 109 of 197 · 3 years: −6.0
Best case+20Middle East settlement · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.33expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkFiscal Capacity & Public Financeweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; remittances relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp; consumer price inflation; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Lebanon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−1.01
Chokepoint closure S05−0.99
Pandemic S14−0.93
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.91
Energy supply shock S09−0.78
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.69
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Food and water shock S11−0.57
Mass displacement S08−0.55
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.52
Disaster in the core S10−0.45
Hybrid campaign S06−0.37
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.30
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Global financial crisis S03High 0.77−1.01−1.14−0.50▼ 531Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.99−0.99−1.17−0.51▼ 1027Economic Leverage & Dependence 0.2 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.75−0.93−1.15−0.51▼ 526Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.2 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.77−0.91−1.08−0.49▼ 323Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.69−0.78−0.88−0.39▼ 123Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.55−0.69−0.79−0.35021Financial Stability & Crisis Management 0.6 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.58−0.67−0.79−0.35▼ 319Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.60−0.65−0.80−0.36▼ 123Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.54−0.57−0.71−0.31▼ 215Resource Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.80−0.55−0.70−0.31▼ 521Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.65−0.52−0.66−0.29014Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 1.5 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.53−0.45−0.58−0.25018Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.4 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.42−0.37−0.46−0.20▼ 217Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.9 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.36−0.30−0.35−0.16▲ 610Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Global financial crisis−0.49−0.51−0.46−1.02−1.02−1.28−1.70−1.46−1.17
Chokepoint closure−0.13−1.63−1.38·−0.73−1.56−0.63−1.25−1.61
Pandemic−0.88−0.50−0.41−1.21−1.06−1.14−1.06−1.04−1.04
Infrastructure collapse−0.98−1.36−0.48−0.48−0.48−1.21−1.13−1.11−0.97
Energy supply shock−0.16−1.09−0.41−0.45−0.45−1.02−1.21−1.16−1.03
Sovereign funding crisis−0.07−0.58−0.33−0.80−0.72−0.99−1.20−0.72−0.83
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.74−0.36−0.33·−0.85−0.82−0.85−0.83−1.24
AI diffusion shock−0.73−0.36−0.32−0.96−0.72−0.99−0.84−0.46−0.41
Food and water shock−0.07−0.65−0.29−0.79−0.76−0.81−0.38−0.65−0.74
Mass displacement·−0.56−0.42−1.14−0.93−1.28−0.55−0.07·
Legitimacy crisis−0.38·−0.77−0.39−0.90−1.25−1.03··
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.94−0.28−0.70−0.31−0.78−0.42−0.31−0.31
Hybrid campaign−0.28−0.60−0.65·−0.67−0.63·−0.25−0.25
Single-supplier cut-off−0.54−0.16−0.20−0.25·−0.51·−0.52−0.52

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Lebanon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+19.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+11.9
Energy abundance S16+11.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+9.9
Yield revolution S22+4.8
Sovereign debt reset S19−2.3
Great-power détente S18−3.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−12.2
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−20.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−25.0
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+19.523.44.02551Energy Infrastructure 4.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+11.918.46.62584Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+11.113.52.41686Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+9.911.71.82478Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+4.88.84.02356Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−2.35.88.121168Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−3.511.515.023128Investment Attraction & Projection 4 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−12.210.222.420166Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−20.812.433.224170Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−25.08.033.013135Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception