Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · MAR

Morocco

Baseline index 9.36Rank 54 of 197TransitionalAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.8rank 136 of 197 · 3 years: 11.6
Worst case−8.7%Infrastructure collapse · tail −8.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+14.9rank 31 of 197 · 3 years: +13.4
Best case+36Energy abundance · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed37%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.68expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; youth unemployment rate; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Morocco’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.81
Energy supply shock S09−0.76
Pandemic S14−0.71
Global financial crisis S03−0.65
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.60
Chokepoint closure S05−0.56
Disaster in the core S10−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.44
Food and water shock S11−0.42
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.35
Mass displacement S08−0.20
Hybrid campaign S06−0.18
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.85−0.81−1.23−0.54017Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.94−0.76−1.21−0.53▼ 315Energy Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Pandemic S14High 0.72−0.71−1.11−0.49015Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03High 0.72−0.65−1.07−0.47010Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.7 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.64−0.92−0.40011Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.1 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.65−0.60−0.94−0.41▼ 112Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.7 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.76−0.56−0.91−0.40▼ 212Maritime Power 6.8 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10High 0.81−0.52−0.88−0.38011Health System Capability 8.6 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.72−0.50−0.73−0.3204Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.5 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.72−0.44−0.72−0.32▼ 110Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.57−0.42−0.75−0.3307Population Health 7.7 · Foundational
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.41−0.35−0.57−0.25▲ 27Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.39−0.20−0.34−0.1503Political Institutions & Civic Participation 7.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.26−0.18−0.28−0.12▲ 33Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.4 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−1.02−1.19−0.42−0.42−0.42−1.06−0.99−0.97−0.85
Energy supply shock−0.18−1.07−0.40−0.44−0.44−1.00−1.19−1.14−1.02
Pandemic−0.75−0.38−0.31−0.91−0.80−0.85−0.80−0.78−0.78
Global financial crisis−0.33−0.33−0.29−0.65−0.65−0.82−1.09−0.93−0.75
AI diffusion shock−0.84−0.35−0.31−0.93−0.70−0.96−0.81−0.45−0.40
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.50−0.28−0.70−0.63−0.86−1.05−0.63−0.72
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.92−0.78·−0.41−0.88−0.35−0.71−0.91
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.08−0.32−0.80−0.36−0.90−0.48−0.36−0.36
Legitimacy crisis−0.37·−0.74−0.37−0.86−1.20−0.98··
Single-supplier cut-off−0.84−0.23−0.29−0.36·−0.73·−0.74−0.74
Food and water shock−0.05−0.47−0.21−0.58−0.55−0.59−0.28−0.47−0.54
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.45−0.19−0.17·−0.43−0.42−0.43−0.43−0.64
Mass displacement·−0.21−0.16−0.42−0.34−0.47−0.20−0.02·
Hybrid campaign−0.13−0.29−0.31·−0.32−0.30·−0.12−0.12

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Morocco is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+35.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+29.5
Middle East settlement S21+25.1
Yield revolution S22+19.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+18.5
Great-power détente S18+16.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+15.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+11.0
Digital state leapfrog S23+9.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−10.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+35.836.50.74127Energy Technologies 6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+29.535.45.8523Foundational Education 9.5 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+25.128.73.65438Energy Infrastructure 10.1 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Gainer+19.922.22.34210Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+18.525.87.33963Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+16.420.84.45641Export Capability & Sophistication 10.7 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+15.317.42.24413Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Gainer+11.030.919.93935Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.4 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+9.726.717.03428Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−10.315.025.32767Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception