Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · GRD

Grenada

Baseline index 4.04Rank 140 of 197NascentLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years31.1rank 50 of 197 · 3 years: 30.3
Worst case−23.7%Global financial crisis · tail −21.5%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.9rank 148 of 197 · 3 years: −8.1
Best case+8Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed18%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.14expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Grenada’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−0.96
Energy supply shock S09−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.81
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.79
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.76
Chokepoint closure S05−0.68
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.66
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Food and water shock S11−0.60
Disaster in the core S10−0.47
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.46
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.36
Mass displacement S08−0.27
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Global financial crisis S03High 0.85−0.96−1.20−0.53▼ 1020Investment Attraction & Projection 1.3 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.80−0.84−0.97−0.43▼ 517Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.71−0.81−0.98−0.44▼ 318Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.71−0.79−1.00−0.44018Energy Infrastructure 1.7 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.70−0.76−0.88−0.40▼ 316Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.72−0.68−0.77−0.36▼ 712Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.63−0.66−0.77−0.35▼ 614Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.66−0.65−0.79−0.35▼ 312Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.60−0.60−0.76−0.34▼ 412Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.60−0.47−0.64−0.28▼ 18Energy Infrastructure 2.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.67−0.46−0.60−0.28▲ 28Force Generation & Mobilisation 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.51−0.36−0.42−0.19▲ 27Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.43−0.27−0.37−0.16▲ 22Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.23−0.20−0.23−0.1003Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Global financial crisis−0.18−0.49−0.35−1.01−1.01−1.26−1.69−1.45−1.16
Energy supply shock−0.04−1.08−0.36−0.51−0.51−1.16−1.37−1.32−1.18
Pandemic−0.21−0.47−0.31−1.16−1.02−1.09−1.02−1.00−1.00
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.66−0.29−0.93−0.84−1.15−1.39−0.84−0.95
Infrastructure collapse−0.21−1.21−0.36−0.45−0.45−1.14−1.06−1.04−0.91
Chokepoint closure−0.04−1.10−0.64·−0.55−1.18−0.47−0.94−1.21
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.21−0.39−0.28·−0.94−0.90−0.94−0.92−1.38
AI diffusion shock−0.21−0.40−0.29−1.09−0.82−1.12−0.95−0.53−0.47
Food and water shock−0.04−0.68−0.24−0.86−0.82−0.87−0.41−0.70−0.80
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.95−0.23−0.73−0.33−0.82−0.44−0.33−0.33
Legitimacy crisis−0.16·−0.56−0.37−0.86−1.20−0.99··
Single-supplier cut-off−0.20−0.23−0.23−0.36·−0.74·−0.75−0.75
Mass displacement·−0.28−0.16−0.58−0.47−0.65−0.27−0.03·
Hybrid campaign−0.08−0.36−0.30·−0.40−0.38·−0.15−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Grenada is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+8.3
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.9
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.6
Middle East settlement S21+1.8
100-day pandemic defence S24+1.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−7.5
Great-power détente S18−11.3
Yield revolution S22−16.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−27.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−29.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+8.39.81.51197Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+5.99.33.43372Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+3.611.17.522133Investment Attraction & Projection 3.3 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+1.89.17.222125Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+1.78.76.914129Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−7.58.415.915127Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−11.310.221.518163Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−16.46.823.313173Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−27.68.035.616186Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−29.34.934.210159Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception