Guatemala · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years17.8rank 102 of 197 · 3 years: 17.1

Worst case−13.9%Energy supply shock · tail −13.2%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.9rank 98 of 197 · 3 years: −1.4

Best case+15Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed24%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.85expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Guatemala’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.79

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.79

Pandemic S14−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.63

Disaster in the core S10−0.62

Global financial crisis S03−0.53

Chokepoint closure S05−0.53

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.49

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.47

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.43

Food and water shock S11−0.33

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.31

Mass displacement S08−0.23

Hybrid campaign S06−0.18

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.79	−0.79	−1.01	−0.44	0	18	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.70	−0.79	−0.98	−0.44	0	19	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.56	−0.67	−0.86	−0.38	▲ 4	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.60	−0.63	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 2	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.81	−0.62	−0.88	−0.38	0	21	Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.49	−0.53	−0.73	−0.32	▲ 4	17	Labour & Employment 4.7 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.57	−0.53	−0.67	−0.29	▲ 3	16	Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.64	−0.49	−0.65	−0.28	▲ 1	12	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 2.9 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.44	−0.47	−0.64	−0.28	▲ 3	14	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.41	−0.43	−0.57	−0.26	▲ 4	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.35	−0.33	−0.46	−0.20	▲ 3	13	Resource Infrastructure 4.5 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.41	−0.31	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 7	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.37	−0.23	−0.33	−0.14	▲ 1	9	Internal Security & Order 5.5 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.20	−0.18	−0.23	−0.10	▲ 4	11	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.8 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−1.11	−0.42	−0.46	−0.46	−1.04	−1.23	−1.19	−1.05
Infrastructure collapse	−0.83	−1.18	−0.42	−0.42	−0.42	−1.05	−0.98	−0.96	−0.84
Pandemic	−0.67	−0.36	−0.30	−0.88	−0.77	−0.82	−0.77	−0.75	−0.75
AI diffusion shock	−0.71	−0.35	−0.32	−0.94	−0.71	−0.97	−0.83	−0.45	−0.40
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.29	−0.39	−0.96	−0.43	−1.08	−0.57	−0.43	−0.43
Global financial crisis	−0.27	−0.27	−0.24	−0.53	−0.53	−0.67	−0.89	−0.76	−0.61
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.87	−0.73	·	−0.39	−0.83	−0.33	−0.67	−0.86
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.72	−0.36	−0.84	−1.17	−0.96	·	·
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.39	−0.22	−0.55	−0.49	−0.67	−0.82	−0.49	−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.50	−0.23	−0.21	·	−0.55	−0.53	−0.55	−0.54	−0.80
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.37	−0.17	−0.46	−0.43	−0.47	−0.22	−0.37	−0.43
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.54	−0.16	−0.21	−0.26	·	−0.53	·	−0.54	−0.54
Mass displacement	·	−0.24	−0.18	−0.49	−0.40	−0.55	−0.23	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.14	−0.30	−0.32	·	−0.33	−0.31	·	−0.12	−0.12

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Guatemala is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+15.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+13.2

Middle East settlement S21+6.5

100-day pandemic defence S24+3.1

Sovereign debt reset S19+2.2

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.4

Great-power détente S18−5.4

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−7.3

Yield revolution S22−11.9

Superintelligence takeoff S15−21.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+15.2	16.5	1.3	20	72	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+13.2	20.8	7.6	33	54	Investment Attraction & Projection 6 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+6.5	13.0	6.5	32	105	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+3.1	9.7	6.6	21	119	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+2.2	5.3	3.1	33	113	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.4	13.7	16.1	21	90	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−5.4	13.8	19.1	33	141	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−7.3	12.5	19.8	21	115	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−11.9	7.5	19.5	21	157	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−21.3	6.4	27.7	14	112	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception