Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years36.5rank 37 of 197 · 3 years: 37.8
Worst case−30.5%Energy supply shock · tail −26.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−4.0rank 110 of 197 · 3 years: −6.2
Best case+14Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.20expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; no coastline; share of population aged under 15; low real gdp per head; low life expectancy at birth; little renewable water per head.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Burkina Faso’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.06
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.96
Chokepoint closure S05−0.72
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Food and water shock S11−0.65
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.60
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.60
Mass displacement S08−0.59
Pandemic S14−0.59
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.54
AI diffusion shock S13−0.44
Disaster in the core S10−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32
Hybrid campaign S06−0.22
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.97 | −1.06 | −1.22 | −0.54 | ▼ 4 | 22 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.82 | −0.96 | −1.17 | −0.51 | ▼ 5 | 26 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.2 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.71 | −0.72 | −0.81 | −0.36 | 0 | 19 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.60 | −0.70 | −0.86 | −0.38 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 1.8 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.61 | −0.65 | −0.80 | −0.35 | ▲ 2 | 20 | Resource Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.75 | −0.60 | −0.72 | −0.32 | 0 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.5 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.51 | −0.60 | −0.68 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.83 | −0.59 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 3 | 16 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.7 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.47 | −0.59 | −0.69 | −0.31 | ▲ 2 | 17 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.72 | −0.54 | −0.62 | −0.28 | ▼ 1 | 18 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.39 | −0.44 | −0.50 | −0.22 | ▲ 3 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.44 | −0.38 | −0.48 | −0.21 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.29 | −0.32 | −0.37 | −0.17 | ▲ 5 | 10 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.25 | −0.22 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.06 | −1.52 | −0.51 | −0.63 | −0.63 | −1.42 | −1.69 | −1.63 | −1.45 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.06 | −0.81 | −0.40 | −1.12 | −1.01 | −1.38 | −1.68 | −1.01 | −1.15 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −1.22 | −0.82 | · | −0.55 | −1.18 | −0.47 | −0.94 | −1.21 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.23 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.73 | −0.91 | −1.21 | −1.04 | −0.83 |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.75 | −0.30 | −0.91 | −0.87 | −0.93 | −0.43 | −0.75 | −0.85 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.28 | · | −0.81 | −0.47 | −1.09 | −1.52 | −1.25 | · | · |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.37 | −0.95 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.85 | −0.79 | −0.78 | −0.68 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.60 | −0.40 | −1.23 | −1.01 | −1.38 | −0.59 | −0.07 | · |
| Pandemic | −0.39 | −0.33 | −0.24 | −0.80 | −0.70 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.69 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.49 | −0.33 | −0.37 | −0.52 | · | −1.05 | · | −1.07 | −1.07 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.21 | −0.69 | −0.52 | −0.72 | −0.61 | −0.33 | −0.30 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.80 | −0.21 | −0.59 | −0.27 | −0.66 | −0.35 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.15 | · | −0.43 | −0.41 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.63 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.11 | −0.38 | −0.35 | · | −0.42 | −0.40 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Burkina Faso is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Sovereign debt reset S19+14.4
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.6
Energy abundance S16+7.9
Middle East settlement S21+6.6
Yield revolution S22+4.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+4.0
Great-power détente S18−2.5
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−11.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−24.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Gainer | +14.4 | 18.0 | 3.6 | 26 | 15 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.6 | 16.4 | 2.7 | 19 | 50 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 9.0 | 1.2 | 10 | 101 | Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +6.6 | 12.3 | 5.8 | 19 | 104 | Energy Infrastructure 3.3 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +4.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 14 | 57 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 11.1 | 7.1 | 14 | 66 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −2.5 | 5.0 | 7.5 | 18 | 124 | Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −5.8 | 5.7 | 11.5 | 14 | 174 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −11.0 | 11.7 | 22.6 | 12 | 158 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −24.0 | 2.5 | 26.6 | 8 | 131 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |