Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years2.2rank 197 of 197 · 3 years: 1.8
Worst case−2.4%AI diffusion shock · tail −2.3%
Opportunity · 10 years+24.9rank 14 of 197 · 3 years: +26.0
Best case+74Superintelligence takeoff · gainer in 8 of 10
Shock absorbed66%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend0.00expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkHealth System Capabilityweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis, Disaster in the core. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; adult obesity rate; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in United States’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
AI diffusion shock S13−0.43
Disaster in the core S10−0.41
Pandemic S14−0.38
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.34
Global financial crisis S03−0.32
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.30
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.18
Mass displacement S08−0.13
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.11
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.10
Food and water shock S11−0.10
Hybrid campaign S06−0.08
Energy supply shock S09−0.05
Chokepoint closure S05−0.04
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.90 | −0.43 | −1.24 | −0.43 | 0 | 10 | Labour & Employment 14 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.97 | −0.41 | −1.06 | −0.41 | 0 | 11 | Health System Capability 14.6 · Established |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.71 | −0.38 | −1.11 | −0.38 | 0 | 11 | Population Health 13.3 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.78 | −0.34 | −1.13 | −0.34 | 0 | 9 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.1 · Advanced |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.66 | −0.32 | −0.98 | −0.32 | 0 | 9 | Labour & Employment 13.9 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.58 | −0.30 | −0.85 | −0.30 | 0 | 7 | Health System Capability 15 · Advanced |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.45 | −0.18 | −0.46 | −0.18 | 0 | 4 | Justice System & Fundamental Rights 14 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.39 | −0.13 | −0.35 | −0.13 | 0 | 4 | Foundational Education 14.3 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Low 0.32 | −0.11 | −0.33 | −0.11 | 0 | 3 | Health System Capability 15.5 · Advanced |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.22 | −0.10 | −0.32 | −0.10 | 0 | 4 | Export Capability & Sophistication 16.8 · Advanced |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.20 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.10 | 0 | 5 | Early Childhood Development 13.3 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.08 | −0.29 | −0.08 | 0 | 3 | Internal Security & Order 15.8 · Advanced |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.11 | −0.05 | −0.15 | −0.05 | 0 | 5 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.7 · Advanced |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.11 | −0.04 | −0.13 | −0.04 | 0 | 4 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.7 · Advanced |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock | −0.56 | −0.23 | −0.23 | −0.62 | −0.47 | −0.64 | −0.55 | −0.30 | −0.27 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.84 | −0.28 | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.37 | −0.28 | −0.28 |
| Pandemic | −0.41 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.43 | −0.46 | −0.43 | −0.42 | −0.42 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.43 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.44 | −0.41 | −0.40 | −0.35 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.39 | −0.53 | −0.45 | −0.36 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.03 | −0.25 | −0.16 | −0.35 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.52 | −0.31 | −0.36 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.29 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.43 | −0.35 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.14 | −0.11 | −0.28 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.13 | −0.02 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.21 | −0.06 | −0.08 | −0.09 | · | −0.18 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.13 | −0.05 | −0.05 | · | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.12 | −0.18 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.11 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.14 | −0.06 | −0.11 | −0.13 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.06 | −0.13 | −0.16 | · | −0.15 | −0.14 | · | −0.06 | −0.06 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.01 | −0.07 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.06 |
| Chokepoint closure | · | −0.06 | −0.06 | · | −0.03 | −0.06 | −0.02 | −0.05 | −0.06 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what United States is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Superintelligence takeoff S15+74.4
100-day pandemic defence S24+49.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+29.8
Great-power détente S18+19.0
Emerging-market breakout S20+12.9
Middle East settlement S21+11.7
Energy abundance S16+11.3
Digital state leapfrog S23+10.3
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.7
Yield revolution S22−1.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +74.4 | 83.5 | 9.2 | 85 | 1 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +49.3 | 51.0 | 1.6 | 78 | 18 | Population Health 14 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +29.8 | 44.4 | 14.6 | 77 | 1 | Population Health 14 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +19.0 | 24.8 | 5.8 | 88 | 35 | Export Capability & Sophistication 17 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.9 | 17.1 | 4.2 | 76 | 58 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +11.7 | 15.1 | 3.4 | 84 | 71 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +11.3 | 15.3 | 4.0 | 85 | 85 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +10.3 | 16.7 | 6.4 | 84 | 22 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −0.7 | 2.3 | 3.0 | 80 | 153 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 6.4 | 7.6 | 84 | 105 | Government Effectiveness & Public Administration 15.8 · Advanced |