Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years8.5rank 161 of 197 · 3 years: 8.2
Worst case−8.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −6.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+13.3rank 35 of 197 · 3 years: +14.2
Best case+34Energy abundance · gainer in 6 of 10
Shock absorbed44%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.38expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: internet users as a share of population; share of exports going to china and the united states; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; youth unemployment rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Chile’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.85
Pandemic S14−0.69
Energy supply shock S09−0.59
AI diffusion shock S13−0.56
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.41
Chokepoint closure S05−0.40
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40
Global financial crisis S03−0.39
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.34
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.19
Mass displacement S08−0.18
Food and water shock S11−0.15
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.94 | −0.85 | −1.36 | −0.60 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.77 | −0.69 | −1.19 | −0.52 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.80 | −0.59 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.69 | −0.56 | −0.94 | −0.41 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.6 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.60 | −0.47 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.78 | −0.41 | −0.84 | −0.37 | 0 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 9.7 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.59 | −0.40 | −0.69 | −0.30 | ▲ 4 | 8 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 7.8 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.75 | −0.40 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▼ 1 | 5 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.2 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.52 | −0.39 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 3 | 7 | Labour & Employment 10.5 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.47 | −0.34 | −0.67 | −0.30 | ▲ 2 | 8 | Energy Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.58 | −0.33 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 2 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.19 | −0.29 | −0.13 | ▲ 4 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.41 | −0.18 | −0.36 | −0.16 | ▲ 1 | 2 | Labour & Employment 11.1 · Transitional |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.24 | −0.15 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 4 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 10.4 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.07 | −1.24 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −0.44 | −1.11 | −1.04 | −1.02 | −0.89 |
| Pandemic | −0.73 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.78 | −0.76 | −0.76 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.14 | −0.82 | −0.31 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.77 | −0.91 | −0.88 | −0.78 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.73 | −0.31 | −0.28 | −0.82 | −0.61 | −0.84 | −0.71 | −0.39 | −0.35 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.60 | −0.25 | −0.23 | · | −0.59 | −0.57 | −0.59 | −0.58 | −0.86 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.85 | −0.26 | −0.63 | −0.28 | −0.71 | −0.38 | −0.28 | −0.28 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.65 | −0.55 | · | −0.29 | −0.62 | −0.25 | −0.50 | −0.64 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.29 | · | −0.58 | −0.29 | −0.68 | −0.94 | −0.77 | · | · |
| Global financial crisis | −0.20 | −0.20 | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.39 | −0.49 | −0.65 | −0.56 | −0.45 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.28 | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.59 | −0.35 | −0.40 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.64 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.27 | · | −0.55 | · | −0.56 | −0.56 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.14 | −0.30 | −0.33 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.13 | −0.37 | −0.30 | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.17 | −0.08 | −0.21 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.10 | −0.17 | −0.20 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Chile is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+34.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+26.4
Great-power détente S18+21.0
Middle East settlement S21+17.8
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+12.6
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.9
Yield revolution S22−0.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−1.8
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +34.2 | 35.0 | 0.8 | 43 | 30 | Energy Technologies 6.2 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +26.4 | 30.5 | 4.1 | 45 | 49 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +21.0 | 32.3 | 11.3 | 56 | 29 | Export Capability & Sophistication 10.3 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +17.8 | 21.5 | 3.7 | 55 | 57 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.1 | 25.4 | 12.3 | 58 | 57 | Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +12.6 | 20.2 | 7.6 | 43 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.2 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.3 | 7.7 | 1.5 | 67 | 66 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 13 · Established |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +2.9 | 22.3 | 19.4 | 46 | 71 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −0.4 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 46 | 103 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.6 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.8 | 16.8 | 18.6 | 30 | 49 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.8 · Inception |