Brazil · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years6.0rank 178 of 197 · 3 years: 5.3

Worst case−6.3%Infrastructure collapse · tail −5.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+9.7rank 47 of 197 · 3 years: +12.8

Best case+32100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 6 of 10

Shock absorbed46%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.26expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkInternal Security & Orderweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Brazil’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.74

Pandemic S14−0.58

AI diffusion shock S13−0.54

Global financial crisis S03−0.47

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.46

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.40

Disaster in the core S10−0.37

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.30

Mass displacement S08−0.29

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.20

Hybrid campaign S06−0.19

Food and water shock S11−0.17

Energy supply shock S09−0.14

Chokepoint closure S05−0.07

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.91	−0.74	−1.31	−0.57	▼ 1	25	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 7.3 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	High 0.70	−0.58	−1.08	−0.47	0	19	Labour & Employment 9.9 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.67	−0.54	−0.92	−0.40	0	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.61	−0.47	−0.92	−0.40	0	12	Labour & Employment 10 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.60	−0.46	−0.86	−0.38	▼ 2	12	Internal Security & Order 9.7 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.73	−0.40	−0.75	−0.33	▼ 2	12	Internal Security & Order 9.5 · Transitional
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.65	−0.37	−0.71	−0.31	▼ 1	15	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 11.2 · Transitional
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.40	−0.30	−0.57	−0.25	0	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.7 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.63	−0.29	−0.55	−0.24	▼ 1	7	Internal Security & Order 9.7 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.38	−0.20	−0.39	−0.17	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.7 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.30	−0.19	−0.33	−0.14	0	11	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 8.5 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.25	−0.17	−0.33	−0.14	▼ 1	9	Internal Security & Order 10.3 · Transitional
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.22	−0.14	−0.28	−0.12	▲ 1	8	Energy Technologies 9.5 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.12	−0.07	−0.14	−0.06	▲ 2	8	Economic Leverage & Dependence 11.2 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.92	−1.07	−0.38	−0.38	−0.38	−0.96	−0.89	−0.88	−0.77
Pandemic	−0.62	−0.31	−0.25	−0.75	−0.66	−0.71	−0.66	−0.64	−0.64
AI diffusion shock	−0.71	−0.29	−0.26	−0.78	−0.59	−0.81	−0.69	−0.38	−0.34
Global financial crisis	−0.24	−0.24	−0.21	−0.48	−0.48	−0.59	−0.79	−0.68	−0.54
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.05	−0.38	−0.22	−0.53	−0.48	−0.66	−0.80	−0.48	−0.55
Legitimacy crisis	−0.30	·	−0.59	−0.30	−0.69	−0.96	−0.79	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.77	−0.23	−0.57	−0.26	−0.64	−0.34	−0.26	−0.26
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.39	−0.16	−0.15	·	−0.38	−0.36	−0.38	−0.37	−0.55
Mass displacement	·	−0.29	−0.22	−0.60	−0.49	−0.68	−0.29	−0.04	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.38	−0.10	−0.13	−0.16	·	−0.33	·	−0.34	−0.34
Hybrid campaign	−0.14	−0.31	−0.34	·	−0.34	−0.32	·	−0.13	−0.13
Food and water shock	−0.02	−0.19	−0.09	−0.24	−0.23	−0.24	−0.11	−0.19	−0.22
Energy supply shock	−0.03	−0.20	−0.08	−0.08	−0.08	−0.19	−0.22	−0.22	−0.19
Chokepoint closure	−0.01	−0.11	−0.10	·	−0.05	−0.11	−0.04	−0.09	−0.11

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Brazil is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+32.1

Emerging-market breakout S20+22.4

Digital state leapfrog S23+18.4

Great-power détente S18+14.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+10.1

Sovereign debt reset S19+10.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15+1.5

Middle East settlement S21−9.9

Yield revolution S22−10.8

Energy abundance S16−19.6

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+32.1	35.8	3.7	59	37	Population Health 11.3 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+22.4	28.7	6.3	60	15	Foundational Education 11.3 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+18.4	28.3	9.9	54	9	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 9.4 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+14.8	25.5	10.6	61	45	Export Capability & Sophistication 11.7 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+10.1	30.2	20.1	57	41	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+10.0	11.7	1.7	62	31	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 12 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	+1.5	21.8	20.3	41	43	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.3 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−9.9	10.0	19.9	59	168	Internal Security & Order 10.7 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−10.8	17.4	28.2	58	149	Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 10.7 · Transitional
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−19.6	10.1	29.7	56	162	Energy Technologies 9.8 · Transitional