Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · HUN

Hungary

Baseline index 10.52Rank 43 of 197TransitionalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years10.6rank 146 of 197 · 3 years: 10.9
Worst case−7.4%Pandemic · tail −6.8%
Opportunity · 10 years+14.1rank 33 of 197 · 3 years: +14.0
Best case+42Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed41%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.57expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Hybrid campaign, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; public debt relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Hungary’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.78
Global financial crisis S03−0.71
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.65
Energy supply shock S09−0.64
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Chokepoint closure S05−0.57
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.46
Hybrid campaign S06−0.39
Disaster in the core S10−0.37
Mass displacement S08−0.32
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.31
Food and water shock S11−0.13
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Pandemic S14High 0.88−0.78−1.36−0.60029Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7.8 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03High 0.84−0.71−1.25−0.55024Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.9 · Foundational
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.74−0.65−1.07−0.47028Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.4 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09High 0.83−0.64−1.07−0.47027Energy Technologies 6.5 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.81−0.64−1.12−0.49026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.4 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.75−0.57−0.87−0.38022Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.68−0.56−0.95−0.42018Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.6 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.79−0.46−0.79−0.35017Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.5 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.53−0.46−0.77−0.34▲ 114Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 8.2 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.59−0.39−0.64−0.28016Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.65−0.37−0.71−0.31▼ 121Transport Infrastructure 10.2 · Transitional
Mass displacement S08High 0.69−0.32−0.61−0.27▼ 115Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.2 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.49−0.31−0.49−0.22▼ 112Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.4 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11Low 0.18−0.13−0.23−0.10▲ 15Resource Infrastructure 9.2 · Transitional

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Pandemic−0.83−0.42−0.34−1.01−0.88−0.94−0.88−0.86−0.86
Global financial crisis−0.36−0.36−0.32−0.71−0.71−0.89−1.19−1.02−0.81
Infrastructure collapse−0.82−0.95−0.34−0.34−0.34−0.85−0.79−0.78−0.68
Energy supply shock−0.15−0.89−0.34−0.37−0.37−0.84−0.99−0.96−0.85
AI diffusion shock−0.84−0.35−0.32−0.93−0.70−0.96−0.82−0.45−0.40
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.96−0.71·−0.43−0.92−0.37−0.74−0.95
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.72−0.30−0.27·−0.70−0.67−0.70−0.69−1.03
Single-supplier cut-off−0.89−0.24−0.31−0.38·−0.77·−0.78−0.78
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.38−0.22−0.53−0.48−0.66−0.80−0.48−0.55
Hybrid campaign−0.30−0.65−0.65·−0.73−0.68·−0.27−0.27
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.77−0.23−0.57−0.26−0.64−0.34−0.26−0.26
Mass displacement·−0.33−0.24−0.66−0.54−0.75−0.32−0.04·
Legitimacy crisis−0.23·−0.46−0.23−0.53−0.74−0.61··
Food and water shock−0.01−0.15−0.07−0.18−0.17−0.18−0.09−0.15−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Hungary is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+42.0
100-day pandemic defence S24+41.0
Middle East settlement S21+30.5
Great-power détente S18+20.9
Superintelligence takeoff S15+5.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+3.5
Digital state leapfrog S23+1.7
Emerging-market breakout S20−0.1
Yield revolution S22−0.2
Sovereign debt reset S19−0.9
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+42.042.20.24920Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+41.043.02.05326Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.3 · Transitional
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+30.531.61.05423Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.8 · Transitional
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+20.933.112.25430Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 9.8 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed+5.127.322.23938Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+3.534.430.95568Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+1.711.29.54764Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 7.6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−0.113.213.359153Transport Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−0.27.77.954101Biotechnology & Health Technologies 10 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−0.96.47.353154Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional