Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years34.4rank 39 of 197 · 3 years: 34.5
Worst case−27.5%Energy supply shock · tail −25.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−9.6rank 155 of 197 · 3 years: −8.7
Best case+7Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.12expected index points from best practice
Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; adult obesity rate; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Samoa’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.95
Chokepoint closure S05−0.84
Global financial crisis S03−0.83
AI diffusion shock S13−0.77
Food and water shock S11−0.71
Pandemic S14−0.65
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.61
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.51
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.49
Disaster in the core S10−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36
Hybrid campaign S06−0.28
Mass displacement S08−0.17
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.91 | −0.95 | −1.09 | −0.49 | ▼ 4 | 22 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.91 | −0.84 | −0.95 | −0.44 | ▼ 4 | 19 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.71 | −0.83 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Investment Attraction & Projection 0.6 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.76 | −0.77 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▼ 4 | 20 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.69 | −0.71 | −0.87 | −0.39 | 0 | 21 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.56 | −0.65 | −0.77 | −0.34 | 0 | 18 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.59 | −0.61 | −0.71 | −0.32 | ▼ 1 | 16 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.45 | −0.51 | −0.63 | −0.28 | ▲ 4 | 18 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.1 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.45 | −0.49 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 6 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.56 | −0.45 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.57 | −0.41 | −0.46 | −0.21 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.52 | −0.36 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 5 | 7 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.2 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.33 | −0.28 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▼ 2 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.26 | −0.17 | −0.22 | −0.10 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Labour & Employment 4.6 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.04 | −1.20 | −0.36 | −0.59 | −0.59 | −1.34 | −1.58 | −1.53 | −1.36 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −1.33 | −0.67 | · | −0.70 | −1.50 | −0.60 | −1.20 | −1.54 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.14 | −0.43 | −0.27 | −0.88 | −0.88 | −1.11 | −1.47 | −1.26 | −1.01 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.15 | −0.48 | −0.30 | −1.32 | −0.99 | −1.36 | −1.15 | −0.63 | −0.56 |
| Food and water shock | −0.04 | −0.77 | −0.25 | −1.03 | −0.99 | −1.06 | −0.49 | −0.84 | −0.97 |
| Pandemic | −0.15 | −0.39 | −0.21 | −0.94 | −0.82 | −0.88 | −0.82 | −0.81 | −0.81 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.15 | −0.37 | −0.23 | · | −0.88 | −0.85 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −1.29 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.43 | −0.16 | −0.60 | −0.54 | −0.75 | −0.90 | −0.54 | −0.62 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.15 | −0.79 | −0.20 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.58 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.93 | −0.19 | −0.71 | −0.32 | −0.80 | −0.43 | −0.32 | −0.32 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.15 | −0.27 | −0.23 | −0.42 | · | −0.85 | · | −0.87 | −0.87 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.11 | · | −0.41 | −0.29 | −0.68 | −0.95 | −0.78 | · | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.51 | −0.39 | · | −0.58 | −0.54 | · | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.18 | −0.09 | −0.36 | −0.29 | −0.40 | −0.17 | −0.02 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Samoa is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+6.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.7
100-day pandemic defence S24+2.1
Middle East settlement S21+1.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−4.7
Energy abundance S16−8.7
Yield revolution S22−8.7
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−21.2
Great-power détente S18−22.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−35.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +6.9 | 11.9 | 5.0 | 18 | 97 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2.3 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.7 | 6.3 | 3.6 | 28 | 104 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.8 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +2.1 | 5.8 | 3.6 | 12 | 125 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +1.5 | 12.8 | 11.2 | 21 | 129 | Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −4.7 | 8.4 | 13.1 | 13 | 104 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −8.7 | 9.6 | 18.2 | 10 | 152 | Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −8.7 | 7.3 | 16.0 | 11 | 140 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −21.2 | 8.8 | 30.0 | 13 | 171 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −22.1 | 6.9 | 29.1 | 15 | 184 | Export Capability & Sophistication 2.3 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −35.1 | 5.5 | 40.6 | 8 | 175 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |