Philippines · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.4rank 139 of 197 · 3 years: 11.5

Worst case−8.5%AI diffusion shock · tail −7.8%

Opportunity · 10 years+10.8rank 43 of 197 · 3 years: +11.4

Best case+27Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed36%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.64expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Energy supply shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; internet users as a share of population; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Philippines’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

AI diffusion shock S13−0.75

Energy supply shock S09−0.69

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.63

Disaster in the core S10−0.58

Pandemic S14−0.58

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.57

Chokepoint closure S05−0.54

Global financial crisis S03−0.50

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.45

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.36

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.34

Food and water shock S11−0.29

Hybrid campaign S06−0.26

Mass displacement S08−0.11

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.80	−0.75	−1.11	−0.48	0	23	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.5 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.80	−0.69	−1.03	−0.45	0	17	Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.63	−0.63	−0.91	−0.40	▲ 1	14	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.9 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.87	−0.58	−0.95	−0.41	0	19	Energy Infrastructure 7.3 · Foundational
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.57	−0.58	−0.89	−0.39	▲ 3	19	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.63	−0.57	−0.89	−0.39	▲ 1	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.73	−0.54	−0.87	−0.38	0	16	Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 6.5 · Foundational
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.56	−0.50	−0.84	−0.37	▲ 2	20	Labour & Employment 7.7 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.70	−0.45	−0.70	−0.31	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.40	−0.36	−0.58	−0.25	▲ 2	10	Internal Security & Order 7.6 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.50	−0.34	−0.51	−0.22	▲ 1	11	Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.37	−0.29	−0.48	−0.21	▲ 1	9	Population Health 7.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.37	−0.26	−0.40	−0.18	▲ 2	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.8 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.20	−0.11	−0.17	−0.08	▲ 4	5	Internal Security & Order 8 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
AI diffusion shock	−0.99	−0.41	−0.37	−1.09	−0.82	−1.13	−0.96	−0.53	−0.47
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−0.96	−0.36	−0.40	−0.40	−0.90	−1.06	−1.03	−0.91
Infrastructure collapse	−0.78	−0.91	−0.33	−0.33	−0.33	−0.81	−0.76	−0.74	−0.65
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.20	−0.36	−0.89	−0.40	−1.00	−0.53	−0.40	−0.40
Pandemic	−0.62	−0.31	−0.25	−0.75	−0.66	−0.70	−0.66	−0.64	−0.64
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.73	−0.30	−0.27	·	−0.71	−0.69	−0.71	−0.70	−1.05
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.89	−0.75	·	−0.40	−0.85	−0.34	−0.68	−0.88
Global financial crisis	−0.25	−0.25	−0.23	−0.50	−0.50	−0.63	−0.84	−0.72	−0.58
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.86	−0.23	−0.30	−0.37	·	−0.74	·	−0.76	−0.76
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.30	−0.17	−0.42	−0.37	−0.51	−0.62	−0.37	−0.43
Legitimacy crisis	−0.25	·	−0.49	−0.25	−0.58	−0.80	−0.66	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.34	−0.15	−0.41	−0.39	−0.42	−0.20	−0.34	−0.38
Hybrid campaign	−0.19	−0.42	−0.46	·	−0.47	−0.44	·	−0.18	−0.18
Mass displacement	·	−0.11	−0.08	−0.22	−0.18	−0.25	−0.11	−0.01	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Philippines is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+26.6

Emerging-market breakout S20+23.0

Middle East settlement S21+22.7

100-day pandemic defence S24+16.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+11.2

Great-power détente S18+7.2

Sovereign debt reset S19+6.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+4.4

Yield revolution S22+3.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15−8.5

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+26.6	27.1	0.5	35	40	Energy Technologies 4.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+23.0	31.9	8.9	48	11	Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+22.7	24.0	1.2	46	43	Internal Security & Order 8.3 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+16.6	19.1	2.5	37	66	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Gainer	+11.2	21.6	10.4	35	19	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+7.2	26.7	19.5	49	67	Export Capability & Sophistication 9.3 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+6.6	8.8	2.2	48	59	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9 · Transitional
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+4.4	22.0	17.6	37	64	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+3.8	13.9	10.1	38	66	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−8.5	23.0	31.5	31	59	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.2 · Nascent