Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years25.7rank 71 of 197 · 3 years: 27.2
Worst case−19.4%Pandemic · tail −18.9%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.9rank 149 of 197 · 3 years: −8.5
Best case+14100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed22%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.13expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; public debt relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in San Marino’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Pandemic S14−0.98
Global financial crisis S03−0.94
Energy supply shock S09−0.94
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.82
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.74
Chokepoint closure S05−0.66
AI diffusion shock S13−0.65
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.60
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.56
Hybrid campaign S06−0.41
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.22
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.12
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.97 | −0.98 | −1.26 | −0.58 | ▼ 5 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.91 | −0.94 | −1.24 | −0.55 | ▼ 5 | 19 | Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.97 | −0.94 | −1.12 | −0.50 | ▼ 5 | 18 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.81 | −0.82 | −0.97 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.74 | −0.74 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 3 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.74 | −0.66 | −0.73 | −0.33 | 0 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.78 | −0.65 | −0.89 | −0.40 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.95 | −0.60 | −0.72 | −0.33 | ▼ 1 | 12 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.57 | −0.56 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 2 | 10 | Energy Infrastructure 1.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.41 | −0.45 | −0.21 | ▼ 3 | 8 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.55 | −0.34 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▲ 3 | 9 | Energy Infrastructure 1.8 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.22 | −0.36 | −0.16 | 0 | 3 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8.4 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.37 | −0.21 | −0.33 | −0.15 | ▲ 4 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 1 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.13 | −0.12 | −0.17 | −0.07 | ▲ 7 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pandemic | −0.20 | −0.52 | −0.20 | −1.48 | −1.18 | −1.38 | −1.29 | −1.27 | −1.27 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.17 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −1.02 | −1.02 | −1.27 | −1.70 | −1.46 | −1.16 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −1.11 | −0.21 | −0.61 | −0.61 | −1.36 | −1.61 | −1.56 | −1.38 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.20 | −1.26 | −0.20 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −1.28 | −1.20 | −1.17 | −1.03 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.20 | −0.40 | −0.17 | · | −1.09 | −1.05 | −1.09 | −1.07 | −1.60 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −1.02 | −0.28 | · | −0.58 | −1.24 | −0.50 | −0.99 | −1.27 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.20 | −0.36 | −0.16 | −1.12 | −0.84 | −1.16 | −0.98 | −0.54 | −0.48 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.20 | −0.32 | −0.21 | −0.66 | · | −1.33 | · | −1.35 | −1.35 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.43 | −0.12 | −0.69 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −1.03 | −0.62 | −0.70 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.73 | −0.25 | · | −0.95 | −0.89 | · | −0.35 | −0.35 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.10 | −0.55 | −0.25 | −0.62 | −0.33 | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.08 | −0.47 | −0.39 | −0.53 | −0.23 | −0.03 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.09 | · | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.48 | · | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.03 | −0.18 | −0.17 | −0.18 | −0.08 | −0.15 | −0.17 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what San Marino is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+13.9
Energy abundance S16+13.3
Middle East settlement S21+6.8
Great-power détente S18−6.0
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.1
Sovereign debt reset S19−8.9
Yield revolution S22−11.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−30.6
Emerging-market breakout S20−30.6
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +13.9 | 16.8 | 2.8 | 18 | 73 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +13.3 | 13.6 | 0.3 | 14 | 79 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +6.8 | 8.2 | 1.5 | 19 | 101 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 2 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −6.0 | 12.1 | 18.1 | 18 | 145 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 2.8 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −6.1 | 3.5 | 9.5 | 22 | 115 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 1.6 | 10.5 | 46 | 193 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 8 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −11.6 | 1.2 | 12.8 | 15 | 155 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −16.3 | 9.4 | 25.7 | 14 | 80 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −30.6 | 8.2 | 38.8 | 23 | 192 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Loser | −30.6 | 3.9 | 34.4 | 23 | 197 | Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception |