Saint Lucia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years31.2rank 49 of 197 · 3 years: 30.2

Worst case−24.0%Global financial crisis · tail −22.2%

Opportunity · 10 years−13.3rank 177 of 197 · 3 years: −12.2

Best case+4Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.10expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; youth unemployment rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; services as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Saint Lucia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Global financial crisis S03−0.92

Energy supply shock S09−0.83

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.80

Pandemic S14−0.76

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.69

AI diffusion shock S13−0.69

Chokepoint closure S05−0.67

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58

Food and water shock S11−0.54

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.47

Disaster in the core S10−0.44

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.33

Mass displacement S08−0.21

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.83	−0.92	−1.15	−0.51	▼ 6	19	Economic Output & Productivity 1 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.79	−0.83	−0.95	−0.43	0	21	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.72	−0.80	−1.01	−0.45	▼ 2	21	Energy Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.66	−0.76	−0.91	−0.41	0	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.64	−0.69	−0.79	−0.36	▲ 2	17	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.71	−0.69	−0.83	−0.37	▼ 1	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.71	−0.67	−0.76	−0.35	0	17	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.55	−0.58	−0.67	−0.30	0	19	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.53	−0.54	−0.68	−0.30	▲ 3	15	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.68	−0.47	−0.61	−0.28	▲ 2	10	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.1 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.56	−0.44	−0.60	−0.26	▲ 3	9	Energy Infrastructure 1.9 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.46	−0.33	−0.37	−0.17	▲ 6	11	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.32	−0.21	−0.28	−0.12	▲ 2	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.20	−0.23	−0.10	▲ 2	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Global financial crisis	−0.16	−0.48	−0.32	−0.98	−0.98	−1.23	−1.64	−1.40	−1.12
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.08	−0.33	−0.51	−0.51	−1.15	−1.36	−1.32	−1.17
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.67	−0.28	−0.95	−0.85	−1.18	−1.42	−0.85	−0.98
Pandemic	−0.17	−0.44	−0.27	−1.09	−0.96	−1.03	−0.96	−0.94	−0.94
Infrastructure collapse	−0.17	−1.12	−0.32	−0.42	−0.42	−1.04	−0.97	−0.95	−0.83
AI diffusion shock	−0.17	−0.43	−0.29	−1.17	−0.88	−1.20	−1.02	−0.56	−0.50
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.09	−0.57	·	−0.54	−1.16	−0.47	−0.93	−1.20
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.17	−0.35	−0.24	·	−0.82	−0.79	−0.82	−0.80	−1.20
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.63	−0.21	−0.77	−0.74	−0.79	−0.37	−0.63	−0.72
Legitimacy crisis	−0.15	·	−0.52	−0.38	−0.89	−1.24	−1.02	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.91	−0.21	−0.70	−0.31	−0.78	−0.42	−0.31	−0.31
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.17	−0.21	−0.21	−0.33	·	−0.68	·	−0.69	−0.69
Mass displacement	·	−0.22	−0.13	−0.44	−0.36	−0.50	−0.21	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.06	−0.37	−0.30	·	−0.41	−0.38	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Saint Lucia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+4.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+2.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+0.6

Middle East settlement S21−7.6

Digital state leapfrog S23−8.9

Energy abundance S16−9.0

Great-power détente S18−13.2

Yield revolution S22−17.8

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−33.0

Superintelligence takeoff S15−37.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+4.2	7.5	3.4	32	86	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+2.2	9.2	7.0	21	142	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+0.6	7.6	7.1	13	143	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−7.6	8.7	16.4	21	164	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−8.9	7.2	16.1	15	142	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−9.0	9.5	18.4	11	153	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Loser	−13.2	8.5	21.8	17	172	Export Capability & Sophistication 3 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−17.8	5.5	23.4	13	175	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−33.0	6.4	39.4	15	193	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−37.7	4.8	42.5	10	184	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception