Fiji · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years24.2rank 75 of 197 · 3 years: 24.7

Worst case−18.4%Energy supply shock · tail −17.1%

Opportunity · 10 years−3.6rank 106 of 197 · 3 years: −2.8

Best case+12Middle East settlement · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed21%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.08expected index points from best practice

Breadth8 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Fiji’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.95

Chokepoint closure S05−0.87

Pandemic S14−0.83

Global financial crisis S03−0.78

AI diffusion shock S13−0.76

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.74

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.72

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.53

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.45

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.41

Disaster in the core S10−0.32

Hybrid campaign S06−0.31

Food and water shock S11−0.26

Mass displacement S08−0.13

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.92	−0.95	−1.15	−0.51	▼ 5	27	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.94	−0.87	−1.08	−0.48	▼ 8	26	Resource Infrastructure 0.7 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.72	−0.83	−1.04	−0.47	▼ 1	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.70	−0.78	−1.02	−0.45	▼ 2	22	Economic Output & Productivity 2.4 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.76	−0.76	−0.95	−0.43	▼ 3	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 0.73	−0.74	−0.94	−0.42	▼ 3	17	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.65	−0.72	−0.86	−0.39	▲ 2	18	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.49	−0.53	−0.71	−0.31	▲ 1	15	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.7 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.63	−0.45	−0.55	−0.25	▼ 2	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.59	−0.41	−0.58	−0.26	▼ 1	9	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.42	−0.32	−0.45	−0.20	▲ 1	8	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.36	−0.31	−0.38	−0.17	▼ 2	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.27	−0.26	−0.35	−0.15	▲ 2	9	Resource Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Low 0.20	−0.13	−0.18	−0.08	▲ 4	5	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 6.2 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.06	−1.36	−0.48	−0.56	−0.56	−1.27	−1.51	−1.45	−1.29
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−1.47	−1.14	·	−0.66	−1.41	−0.56	−1.13	−1.45
Pandemic	−0.45	−0.47	−0.37	−1.14	−1.00	−1.07	−1.00	−0.98	−0.98
Global financial crisis	−0.27	−0.40	−0.35	−0.80	−0.80	−1.00	−1.33	−1.14	−0.91
AI diffusion shock	−0.46	−0.46	−0.40	−1.22	−0.91	−1.25	−1.06	−0.59	−0.52
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.43	−0.43	−0.38	·	−1.01	−0.97	−1.01	−0.99	−1.48
Infrastructure collapse	−0.46	−1.12	−0.39	−0.40	−0.40	−1.00	−0.94	−0.92	−0.80
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.44	−0.25	−0.61	−0.55	−0.76	−0.92	−0.55	−0.63
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.43	−0.27	−0.34	−0.42	·	−0.86	·	−0.87	−0.87
Legitimacy crisis	−0.22	·	−0.60	−0.31	−0.73	−1.02	−0.84	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.66	−0.20	−0.49	−0.22	−0.55	−0.29	−0.22	−0.22
Hybrid campaign	−0.17	−0.52	−0.56	·	−0.58	−0.55	·	−0.22	−0.22
Food and water shock	−0.03	−0.30	−0.13	−0.36	−0.35	−0.37	−0.17	−0.30	−0.34
Mass displacement	·	−0.13	−0.10	−0.26	−0.21	−0.29	−0.12	−0.02	·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Fiji is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+12.4

Emerging-market breakout S20+9.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+8.4

Energy abundance S16+6.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+5.4

Digital state leapfrog S23−1.4

Yield revolution S22−8.2

Great-power détente S18−8.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−18.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−25.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+12.4	17.9	5.5	30	70	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+9.8	17.5	7.7	29	79	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+8.4	11.7	3.2	18	96	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+6.6	14.3	7.7	15	109	Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+5.4	8.6	3.2	37	76	Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 7 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−1.4	10.5	11.9	19	84	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−8.2	5.9	14.1	17	138	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	−8.6	16.9	25.4	28	158	Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−18.3	12.5	30.8	19	165	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−25.4	8.8	34.2	12	138	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception