Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · MWI

Malawi

Baseline index 3.76Rank 152 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years31.3rank 48 of 197 · 3 years: 31.4
Worst case−26.6%Energy supply shock · tail −23.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−1.8rank 95 of 197 · 3 years: −3.4
Best case+18Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed16%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.09expected index points from best practice
Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low real gdp per head; consumer price inflation; few months of imports covered by reserves; share of population aged under 15; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Malawi’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.00
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.96
Global financial crisis S03−0.70
Chokepoint closure S05−0.70
Food and water shock S11−0.62
Disaster in the core S10−0.59
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.56
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.55
Pandemic S14−0.55
AI diffusion shock S13−0.47
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.13
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.92−1.00−1.15−0.51▼ 422Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.82−0.96−1.17−0.51▼ 725Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.8 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.57−0.70−0.84−0.37▲ 121Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 2.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.71−0.70−0.80−0.36▼ 214Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.59−0.62−0.77−0.34016Resource Infrastructure 1.1 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.69−0.59−0.74−0.32▼ 414Energy Infrastructure 2.2 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.77−0.56−0.74−0.33▼ 29Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.6 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12Medium 0.47−0.55−0.63−0.29▲ 612Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14Medium 0.44−0.55−0.65−0.29▲ 612Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.41−0.47−0.53−0.24▲ 713Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.52−0.41−0.47−0.22▲ 111Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.29−0.34−0.39−0.18▲ 77Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.44−0.31−0.39−0.17▼ 19Labour & Employment 4 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.15−0.13−0.16−0.07▲ 44Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.06−1.44−0.48−0.60−0.60−1.35−1.60−1.54−1.37
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.81−0.40−1.12−1.01−1.39−1.68−1.01−1.15
Global financial crisis−0.29−0.36−0.29−0.72−0.72−0.90−1.20−1.03−0.82
Chokepoint closure−0.06−1.20−0.78·−0.54−1.16−0.46−0.93−1.19
Food and water shock−0.06−0.72−0.29−0.87−0.83−0.89−0.42−0.72−0.82
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.22−0.33−0.91−0.41−1.02−0.54−0.41−0.41
Legitimacy crisis−0.34·−0.74−0.43−1.00−1.40−1.15··
Infrastructure collapse−0.45−0.85−0.27−0.30−0.30−0.76−0.71−0.70−0.61
Pandemic−0.46−0.30−0.22−0.73−0.64−0.69−0.64−0.63−0.63
AI diffusion shock−0.45−0.27−0.22−0.72−0.54−0.75−0.63−0.35−0.31
Single-supplier cut-off−0.52−0.24−0.27−0.38·−0.76·−0.77−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.32−0.19−0.15·−0.44−0.42−0.44−0.43−0.64
Mass displacement·−0.32−0.21−0.65−0.53−0.73−0.31−0.04·
Hybrid campaign−0.10−0.23−0.21·−0.25−0.24·−0.10−0.10

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Malawi is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+17.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+16.9
Energy abundance S16+8.9
Yield revolution S22+6.6
Middle East settlement S21+5.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+0.4
Great-power détente S18−1.9
100-day pandemic defence S24−4.8
Digital state leapfrog S23−6.7
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.5
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Gainer+17.918.60.82230Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Gainer+16.920.63.8287Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 5 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+8.910.11.21195Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+6.610.64.01748Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+5.911.85.922109Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+0.411.811.41885Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−1.95.77.619122Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−4.86.411.217167Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−6.713.119.914120Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−22.53.025.59122Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception