Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · PRY

Paraguay

Baseline index 5.79Rank 104 of 197NascentLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years18.6rank 99 of 197 · 3 years: 19.0
Worst case−15.4%Infrastructure collapse · tail −14.6%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.5rank 134 of 197 · 3 years: −3.7
Best case+15Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed24%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.89expected index points from best practice
Breadth8 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; industry as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Paraguay’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.89
Energy supply shock S09−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.80
AI diffusion shock S13−0.62
Chokepoint closure S05−0.60
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.52
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.45
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.40
Disaster in the core S10−0.39
Mass displacement S08−0.25
Food and water shock S11−0.22
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.80−0.89−1.10−0.50▼ 320Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.84−0.84−1.06−0.47▼ 119Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.70−0.80−1.06−0.47▼ 120Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.2 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.61−0.62−0.81−0.36▲ 118Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.63−0.60−0.74−0.33▲ 119Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.53−0.56−0.79−0.35▲ 217Investment Attraction & Projection 4.9 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.71−0.52−0.72−0.32▼ 112Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.1 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.64−0.47−0.60−0.28015Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.44−0.45−0.63−0.27▲ 312Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.7 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.38−0.40−0.53−0.23▲ 28Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.53−0.39−0.57−0.25▲ 114Energy Infrastructure 5.2 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.41−0.25−0.36−0.1607Internal Security & Order 6.5 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11Low 0.24−0.22−0.32−0.14▲ 57Resource Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.24−0.21−0.26−0.11▲ 35Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.83−1.35−0.48−0.48−0.48−1.20−1.12−1.10−0.96
Energy supply shock−0.12−1.18−0.44−0.49−0.49−1.11−1.31−1.26−1.12
Pandemic−0.76−0.43−0.36−1.05−0.92−0.99−0.92−0.90−0.90
AI diffusion shock−0.70−0.35−0.31−0.93−0.70−0.96−0.82−0.45−0.40
Chokepoint closure−0.08−1.00−0.79·−0.45−0.96−0.38−0.77−0.99
Global financial crisis−0.28−0.28−0.25−0.56−0.56−0.70−0.93−0.80−0.64
Legitimacy crisis−0.38·−0.76−0.38−0.89−1.24−1.02··
Single-supplier cut-off−0.76−0.26−0.33−0.41·−0.82·−0.84−0.84
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.37−0.21−0.52−0.47−0.64−0.78−0.47−0.53
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.46−0.22−0.19·−0.50−0.49−0.50−0.49−0.74
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.80−0.24−0.59−0.27−0.66−0.35−0.27−0.27
Mass displacement·−0.25−0.19−0.51−0.42−0.57−0.24−0.03·
Food and water shock−0.02−0.25−0.11−0.31−0.29−0.31−0.15−0.25−0.29
Hybrid campaign−0.16−0.34−0.37·−0.38−0.36·−0.14−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Paraguay is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+15.0
Middle East settlement S21+6.9
100-day pandemic defence S24+6.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+2.7
Digital state leapfrog S23−3.3
Great-power détente S18−7.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−18.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−19.6
Yield revolution S22−37.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+15.016.31.31973Energy Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+6.913.06.132100Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 5.8 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+6.512.76.221101Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+2.75.42.837103Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6.5 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+2.717.314.734138Investment Attraction & Projection 6 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−3.311.915.22199Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−7.510.818.331154Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−18.39.828.122164Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−19.67.727.31596Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−37.77.144.822197Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.8 · Inception