Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years37.8rank 35 of 197 · 3 years: 40.8
Worst case−30.4%Energy supply shock · tail −25.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.3rank 117 of 197 · 3 years: −7.1
Best case+12Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed15%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.22expected index points from best practice
Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Legitimacy crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Lesotho’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−1.04
Chokepoint closure S05−0.80
Pandemic S14−0.76
Global financial crisis S03−0.74
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.68
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.65
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.63
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.61
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.58
Food and water shock S11−0.57
AI diffusion shock S13−0.54
Disaster in the core S10−0.37
Mass displacement S08−0.26
Hybrid campaign S06−0.17
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.97 | −1.04 | −1.19 | −0.53 | ▼ 5 | 24 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.83 | −0.80 | −0.90 | −0.41 | ▼ 3 | 22 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.63 | −0.76 | −0.87 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.63 | −0.74 | −0.89 | −0.39 | ▲ 1 | 18 | Economic Output & Productivity 1.4 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.60 | −0.68 | −0.76 | −0.34 | 0 | 20 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.62 | −0.65 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.86 | −0.63 | −0.77 | −0.35 | ▼ 2 | 11 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 0 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.87 | −0.61 | −0.70 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.50 | −0.58 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 16 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.55 | −0.57 | −0.71 | −0.31 | ▲ 4 | 17 | Resource Infrastructure 1.4 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.52 | −0.54 | −0.62 | −0.28 | 0 | 16 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.44 | −0.37 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 2 | 12 | Transport Infrastructure 2.5 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.37 | −0.26 | −0.32 | −0.14 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Health System Capability 4.4 · Nascent |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.19 | −0.17 | −0.19 | −0.09 | ▲ 3 | 5 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.02 | −1.47 | −0.41 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −1.43 | −1.70 | −1.64 | −1.46 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −1.39 | −0.70 | · | −0.64 | −1.37 | −0.55 | −1.10 | −1.41 |
| Pandemic | −0.25 | −0.45 | −0.27 | −1.08 | −0.95 | −1.02 | −0.95 | −0.93 | −0.93 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.16 | −0.39 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.78 | −0.97 | −1.30 | −1.11 | −0.89 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.25 | −1.11 | −0.30 | −0.40 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −0.80 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.25 | −0.40 | −0.26 | · | −0.92 | −0.89 | −0.92 | −0.90 | −1.35 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.71 | −0.52 | −1.20 | −1.68 | −1.38 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.25 | −0.40 | −0.37 | −0.63 | · | −1.28 | · | −1.30 | −1.30 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.02 | −0.50 | −0.21 | −0.69 | −0.62 | −0.85 | −1.03 | −0.62 | −0.71 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.23 | −0.82 | −0.78 | −0.84 | −0.39 | −0.67 | −0.76 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.22 | −0.34 | −0.23 | −0.89 | −0.67 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.78 | −0.18 | −0.58 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.35 | −0.26 | −0.26 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.27 | −0.16 | −0.55 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.26 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.08 | −0.31 | −0.23 | · | −0.34 | −0.32 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Lesotho is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+12.1
Energy abundance S16+7.2
Sovereign debt reset S19+6.4
Middle East settlement S21+4.9
Yield revolution S22+3.7
Great-power détente S18+2.4
100-day pandemic defence S24−5.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−7.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−10.5
Superintelligence takeoff S15−31.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +12.1 | 15.2 | 3.1 | 19 | 63 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 8.4 | 1.2 | 9 | 106 | Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +6.4 | 10.1 | 3.7 | 26 | 64 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 5 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +4.9 | 10.6 | 5.7 | 20 | 115 | Transport Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +3.7 | 7.6 | 3.9 | 12 | 68 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 10.0 | 7.6 | 18 | 93 | Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −5.0 | 6.6 | 11.6 | 12 | 168 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −7.9 | 11.0 | 18.9 | 13 | 117 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Loser | −10.5 | 11.4 | 21.9 | 13 | 155 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −31.3 | 3.3 | 34.7 | 8 | 166 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |