Qatar · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years7.5rank 167 of 197 · 3 years: 7.3

Worst case−8.7%Infrastructure collapse · tail −6.8%

Opportunity · 10 years−0.4rank 86 of 197 · 3 years: −1.9

Best case+20100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed40%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.36expected index points from best practice

Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; industry as a share of gdp; little renewable water per head; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Qatar’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.82

AI diffusion shock S13−0.56

Pandemic S14−0.55

Global financial crisis S03−0.42

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.40

Food and water shock S11−0.40

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35

Chokepoint closure S05−0.34

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.27

Hybrid campaign S06−0.26

Disaster in the core S10−0.22

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.20

Mass displacement S08−0.17

Energy supply shock S09−0.15

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.86	−0.82	−1.23	−0.54	0	21	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.66	−0.56	−0.90	−0.40	▲ 1	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.60	−0.55	−0.92	−0.40	▲ 2	11	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.3 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.53	−0.42	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 3	8	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 2.8 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.51	−0.40	−0.71	−0.31	0	8	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.55	−0.40	−0.73	−0.32	0	8	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 8.6 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.61	−0.35	−0.61	−0.27	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.47	−0.34	−0.55	−0.24	▲ 2	6	Maritime Power 5.6 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.32	−0.27	−0.46	−0.20	▲ 3	6	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.39	−0.26	−0.43	−0.19	0	3	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.4 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.38	−0.22	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 1	5	Energy Infrastructure 7.5 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Low 0.27	−0.20	−0.28	−0.12	▲ 1	4	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.36	−0.17	−0.32	−0.14	0	4	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.19	−0.15	−0.24	−0.11	▲ 5	3	Energy Technologies 3 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−1.02	−1.20	−0.43	−0.43	−0.43	−1.07	−1.00	−0.98	−0.85
AI diffusion shock	−0.73	−0.31	−0.28	−0.82	−0.61	−0.84	−0.72	−0.39	−0.35
Pandemic	−0.58	−0.29	−0.24	−0.71	−0.62	−0.66	−0.62	−0.61	−0.61
Global financial crisis	−0.21	−0.21	−0.19	−0.42	−0.42	−0.53	−0.71	−0.60	−0.48
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.51	−0.21	−0.19	·	−0.50	−0.48	−0.50	−0.49	−0.73
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.46	−0.21	−0.56	−0.54	−0.57	−0.27	−0.46	−0.52
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.68	−0.18	−0.23	−0.29	·	−0.58	·	−0.59	−0.59
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−0.56	−0.47	·	−0.25	−0.54	−0.21	−0.43	−0.55
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.03	−0.22	−0.13	−0.31	−0.28	−0.38	−0.46	−0.28	−0.32
Hybrid campaign	−0.20	−0.43	−0.46	·	−0.47	−0.44	·	−0.18	−0.18
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.45	−0.14	−0.34	−0.15	−0.38	−0.20	−0.15	−0.15
Legitimacy crisis	−0.15	·	−0.30	−0.15	−0.35	−0.49	−0.40	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.17	−0.13	−0.35	−0.28	−0.39	−0.17	−0.02	·
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−0.21	−0.08	−0.09	−0.09	−0.20	−0.24	−0.23	−0.20

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Qatar is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+19.5

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+17.5

Great-power détente S18+14.1

Middle East settlement S21+6.9

Yield revolution S22+4.4

Superintelligence takeoff S15+1.7

Sovereign debt reset S19−3.2

Digital state leapfrog S23−10.9

Emerging-market breakout S20−12.3

Energy abundance S16−37.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+19.5	23.0	3.5	39	60	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+17.5	19.0	1.4	38	20	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+14.1	22.2	8.1	48	47	Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+6.9	29.8	23.0	50	99	Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+4.4	7.0	2.6	37	61	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	+1.7	17.2	15.5	27	42	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−3.2	0.4	3.6	40	174	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−10.9	7.3	18.1	33	157	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Loser	−12.3	10.6	23.0	48	189	Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−37.4	4.9	42.2	33	168	Energy Technologies 3.4 · Nascent