Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · LBY

Libya

Baseline index 3.01Rank 170 of 197NascentAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years46.4rank 19 of 197 · 3 years: 47.9
Worst case−35.7%Infrastructure collapse · tail −32.2%
Opportunity · 10 years−18.4rank 193 of 197 · 3 years: −19.6
Best case+2Yield revolution · gainer in 0 of 10
Shock absorbed12%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.37expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; industry as a share of gdp; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; refugees hosted per head of population; adult obesity rate; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Libya’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−1.07
Pandemic S14−1.01
Global financial crisis S03−0.82
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.74
Mass displacement S08−0.73
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.72
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.67
Food and water shock S11−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.67
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.45
Energy supply shock S09−0.44
Disaster in the core S10−0.43
Chokepoint closure S05−0.39
Hybrid campaign S06−0.34
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.90−1.07−1.20−0.54▼ 831Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.78−1.01−1.15−0.52▼ 828Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.63−0.82−0.92−0.40▼ 326Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.1 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.83−0.74−0.82−0.36▼ 619Justice System & Fundamental Rights 0.2 · Inception
Mass displacement S08High 0.98−0.73−0.86−0.38▼ 821Political Institutions & Civic Participation 0.2 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.97−0.72−0.83−0.40▼ 621Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.57−0.67−0.75−0.33▼ 319Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.61−0.67−0.81−0.35▼ 225Internal Security & Order 1.5 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.58−0.67−0.75−0.33▼ 225Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Low 0.35−0.45−0.50−0.22▲ 521Political Institutions & Civic Participation 1.7 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.40−0.44−0.51−0.23▲ 1021Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.46−0.43−0.50−0.22▲ 123Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 2.2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Medium 0.39−0.39−0.46−0.20▲ 415Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 1.5 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.35−0.34−0.38−0.17▼ 213Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.64−1.69−0.60−0.60−0.60−1.51−1.41−1.38−1.21
Pandemic−0.63−0.57−0.47−1.38−1.21−1.30−1.21−1.19−1.19
Global financial crisis−0.29−0.42−0.38−0.84−0.84−1.05−1.39−1.19−0.96
Legitimacy crisis−0.40·−1.08−0.56−1.32−1.84−1.51··
Mass displacement·−0.74−0.56−1.52−1.24−1.71−0.72−0.09·
Single-supplier cut-off−0.66−0.43−0.55−0.68·−1.32·−1.40−1.40
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.54−0.38−0.34·−0.88−0.85−0.88−0.87−1.30
Food and water shock−0.08−0.77−0.34−0.94−0.89−0.96−0.45−0.77−0.87
AI diffusion shock−0.51−0.39−0.35−1.04−0.78−1.07−0.91−0.50−0.45
Sovereign funding crisis−0.05−0.37−0.21−0.52−0.46−0.64−0.77−0.46−0.53
Energy supply shock−0.10−0.61−0.23−0.25−0.25−0.57−0.68−0.65−0.58
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.88−0.26−0.65−0.29−0.73−0.39−0.29−0.29
Chokepoint closure−0.05−0.64−0.54·−0.29−0.61−0.24−0.49−0.63
Hybrid campaign−0.19−0.57−0.62·−0.63−0.59·−0.24−0.24

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Libya is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Yield revolution S22+2.2
Sovereign debt reset S19−2.0
Great-power détente S18−2.1
100-day pandemic defence S24−2.5
Emerging-market breakout S20−6.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−18.3
Superintelligence takeoff S15−34.3
Middle East settlement S21−42.5
Energy abundance S16−75.1
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed+2.26.64.41381Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−2.02.24.213164Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed−2.16.38.413123Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed−2.59.411.913157Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−6.611.317.816182Investment Attraction & Projection 2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−9.19.618.814123Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.4 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Loser−18.37.726.010183Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−34.33.838.17172Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−42.55.848.317193Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−75.12.677.612195Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception