Rwanda · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years18.7rank 98 of 197 · 3 years: 19.4

Worst case−15.8%Energy supply shock · tail −13.2%

Opportunity · 10 years+7.9rank 52 of 197 · 3 years: +6.6

Best case+22Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 6 of 10

Shock absorbed26%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.92expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; no coastline; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; share of population aged under 15; little renewable water per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Rwanda’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.94

Food and water shock S11−0.75

Chokepoint closure S05−0.68

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.61

Global financial crisis S03−0.59

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.58

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.55

Pandemic S14−0.49

AI diffusion shock S13−0.48

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.41

Mass displacement S08−0.41

Disaster in the core S10−0.34

Hybrid campaign S06−0.18

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.94	−0.94	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 5	26	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.79	−0.75	−1.04	−0.46	▼ 9	20	Resource Infrastructure 2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.73	−0.68	−0.84	−0.37	▼ 3	17	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.62	−0.61	−0.88	−0.39	▼ 4	15	Energy Infrastructure 3.5 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.55	−0.59	−0.82	−0.36	0	16	Economic Output & Productivity 4.8 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	Medium 0.51	−0.58	−0.73	−0.32	▲ 3	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.76	−0.55	−0.77	−0.34	▼ 3	14	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.7 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.44	−0.49	−0.68	−0.30	▲ 4	11	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.47	−0.48	−0.63	−0.28	▲ 3	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.61	−0.47	−0.59	−0.27	▼ 2	14	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.39	−0.41	−0.54	−0.24	▼ 1	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.71	−0.41	−0.62	−0.27	▼ 5	10	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.9 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.49	−0.34	−0.52	−0.23	0	9	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.22	−0.18	−0.24	−0.10	▲ 2	5	Maritime Power 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.18	−1.33	−0.44	−0.55	−0.55	−1.24	−1.47	−1.42	−1.26
Food and water shock	−0.09	−0.85	−0.34	−1.04	−1.00	−1.07	−0.50	−0.85	−0.98
Chokepoint closure	−0.09	−1.15	−0.80	·	−0.52	−1.11	−0.44	−0.89	−1.14
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.51	−0.26	−0.71	−0.64	−0.88	−1.07	−0.64	−0.74
Global financial crisis	−0.30	−0.30	−0.24	−0.60	−0.60	−0.75	−1.00	−0.86	−0.69
Infrastructure collapse	−0.71	−0.85	−0.27	−0.30	−0.30	−0.76	−0.71	−0.69	−0.60
Legitimacy crisis	−0.41	·	−0.74	−0.41	−0.96	−1.33	−1.09	·	·
Pandemic	−0.53	−0.26	−0.19	−0.64	−0.56	−0.60	−0.56	−0.55	−0.55
AI diffusion shock	−0.58	−0.27	−0.21	−0.71	−0.53	−0.73	−0.62	−0.34	−0.30
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.81	−0.25	−0.29	−0.40	·	−0.81	·	−0.82	−0.82
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.49	−0.22	−0.18	·	−0.52	−0.50	−0.52	−0.51	−0.76
Mass displacement	·	−0.42	−0.28	−0.85	−0.70	−0.96	−0.41	−0.05	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.72	−0.19	−0.53	−0.24	−0.60	−0.32	−0.24	−0.24
Hybrid campaign	−0.13	−0.29	−0.27	·	−0.33	−0.31	·	−0.12	−0.12

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Rwanda is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+21.6

Yield revolution S22+19.0

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+18.8

Energy abundance S16+16.9

Sovereign debt reset S19+16.4

Middle East settlement S21+14.0

Great-power détente S18+5.3

Digital state leapfrog S23+5.2

100-day pandemic defence S24+2.9

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.7

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+21.6	24.1	2.5	29	18	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+19.0	22.3	3.3	28	12	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+18.8	23.4	4.5	31	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+16.9	17.8	0.9	20	61	Energy Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+16.4	19.1	2.7	40	10	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+14.0	18.5	4.5	31	65	Energy Infrastructure 4.8 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+5.3	11.0	5.7	30	77	Export Capability & Sophistication 5 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+5.2	22.7	17.5	25	50	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+2.9	11.2	8.4	29	122	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.7	6.3	27.0	16	104	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception