Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Africa · DZA

Algeria

Baseline index 6.96Rank 82 of 197FoundationalAfricaAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years15.2rank 114 of 197 · 3 years: 14.8
Worst case−12.9%Infrastructure collapse · tail −11.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−3.7rank 107 of 197 · 3 years: −5.0
Best case+23Yield revolution · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed29%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.81expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; staple foods among the top five imports; land borders with states in conflict or collapse; little renewable water per head; youth unemployment rate; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Algeria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.90
Food and water shock S11−0.84
Pandemic S14−0.71
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.67
AI diffusion shock S13−0.61
Disaster in the core S10−0.59
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.49
Global financial crisis S03−0.49
Mass displacement S08−0.49
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.40
Energy supply shock S09−0.34
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.27
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
Chokepoint closure S05−0.18
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.84−0.90−1.21−0.53▼ 222Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.5 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.95−0.84−1.26−0.55▼ 924Trade Facilitation & Logistics 5.1 · Nascent
Pandemic S14High 0.64−0.71−0.99−0.43022Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.85−0.67−0.87−0.38▼ 616Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3.7 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13Medium 0.59−0.61−0.80−0.36021Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.83−0.59−0.90−0.39▼ 221Financial System Depth & Access 6 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.74−0.49−0.73−0.32013Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.44−0.49−0.66−0.29▲ 214Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.5 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08High 0.86−0.49−0.76−0.33▼ 417Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.3 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.37−0.40−0.54−0.24▲ 311Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.8 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.39−0.34−0.50−0.22▲ 312Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Low 0.26−0.27−0.37−0.16▲ 28Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.34−0.26−0.37−0.16▼ 112Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.24−0.18−0.28−0.12▲ 64Trade Facilitation & Logistics 6.5 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−1.09−1.31−0.47−0.47−0.47−1.17−1.09−1.07−0.93
Food and water shock−0.10−0.95−0.43−1.17−1.11−1.19−0.56−0.95−1.09
Pandemic−0.76−0.38−0.31−0.92−0.80−0.86−0.80−0.79−0.79
Legitimacy crisis−0.49·−0.99−0.49−1.15−1.60−1.32··
AI diffusion shock−0.74−0.34−0.30−0.89−0.67−0.92−0.78−0.43−0.38
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.21−0.36−0.90−0.40−1.01−0.54−0.40−0.40
Single-supplier cut-off−0.88−0.26−0.33−0.41·−0.83·−0.84−0.84
Global financial crisis−0.25−0.25−0.22−0.49−0.49−0.62−0.82−0.70−0.56
Mass displacement·−0.50−0.38−1.03−0.84−1.16−0.49−0.06·
Sovereign funding crisis−0.04−0.34−0.19−0.47−0.42−0.58−0.70−0.42−0.48
Energy supply shock−0.08−0.48−0.18−0.20−0.20−0.45−0.53−0.51−0.46
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.34−0.14−0.13·−0.33−0.32−0.33−0.32−0.49
Hybrid campaign−0.20−0.43−0.47·−0.48−0.45·−0.18−0.18
Chokepoint closure−0.02−0.29−0.25·−0.13−0.28−0.11−0.23−0.29

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Algeria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Yield revolution S22+23.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+9.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+9.1
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.6
Great-power détente S18+2.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+2.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−2.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−21.1
Middle East settlement S21−22.7
Energy abundance S16−53.3
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Yield revolution S22 ↗Gainer+23.126.43.3327Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+9.123.714.63483Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+9.117.68.53190Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+2.65.52.933108Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 5.7 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+2.58.25.83190Investment Attraction & Projection 5.3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed+2.121.519.43178Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−2.217.820.02488Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−21.19.030.118111Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Loser−22.713.536.340174Trade Facilitation & Logistics 7 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Loser−53.36.059.328178Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent