Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Fuel-dependent. Budgets built on oil and gas: the upside scenarios are their downside. One of 15 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years21.6rank 85 of 197 · 3 years: 21.4
Worst case−18.0%Infrastructure collapse · tail −16.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−8.9rank 150 of 197 · 3 years: −10.2
Best case+16Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed19%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.87expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; share of population aged under 15; low life expectancy at birth; low real gdp per head; staple foods among the top five imports.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Cameroon’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.79
Food and water shock S11−0.76
Pandemic S14−0.64
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.63
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.61
AI diffusion shock S13−0.56
Global financial crisis S03−0.52
Mass displacement S08−0.50
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47
Disaster in the core S10−0.42
Energy supply shock S09−0.38
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.28
Chokepoint closure S05−0.21
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.68 | −0.79 | −0.93 | −0.42 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | High 0.74 | −0.76 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 5 | 16 | Population Health 2.6 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | Medium 0.51 | −0.64 | −0.77 | −0.34 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.54 | −0.63 | −0.78 | −0.34 | 0 | 14 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 2.7 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.73 | −0.61 | −0.73 | −0.32 | ▼ 2 | 14 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.9 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | Medium 0.51 | −0.56 | −0.66 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.44 | −0.52 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 3.5 · Nascent |
| Mass displacement S08 | High 0.72 | −0.50 | −0.64 | −0.28 | ▼ 4 | 10 | Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.3 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.62 | −0.47 | −0.57 | −0.26 | ▼ 1 | 9 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.49 | −0.42 | −0.54 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 3.7 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.36 | −0.38 | −0.46 | −0.20 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Energy Technologies 0.1 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Low 0.25 | −0.28 | −0.34 | −0.15 | ▲ 8 | 9 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.22 | −0.21 | −0.27 | −0.12 | ▲ 6 | 10 | Maritime Power 2.5 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.23 | −0.21 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▼ 1 | 6 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.64 | −1.22 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −0.43 | −1.09 | −1.01 | −0.99 | −0.87 |
| Food and water shock | −0.09 | −0.86 | −0.39 | −1.06 | −1.01 | −1.08 | −0.50 | −0.86 | −0.99 |
| Pandemic | −0.55 | −0.35 | −0.29 | −0.85 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.75 | −0.73 | −0.73 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.07 | −0.53 | −0.30 | −0.73 | −0.66 | −0.90 | −1.09 | −0.66 | −0.75 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.36 | · | −0.91 | −0.45 | −1.06 | −1.48 | −1.21 | · | · |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.55 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.86 | −0.64 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.41 | −0.37 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.23 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.52 | −0.52 | −0.65 | −0.87 | −0.75 | −0.60 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.51 | −0.38 | −1.04 | −0.85 | −1.17 | −0.49 | −0.06 | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.64 | −0.26 | −0.34 | −0.42 | · | −0.84 | · | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.87 | −0.26 | −0.65 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.39 | −0.29 | −0.29 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.09 | −0.53 | −0.20 | −0.22 | −0.22 | −0.50 | −0.59 | −0.57 | −0.51 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.29 | −0.15 | −0.14 | · | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.35 | −0.35 | −0.52 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.03 | −0.35 | −0.30 | · | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.14 | −0.27 | −0.35 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.38 | · | −0.39 | −0.37 | · | −0.15 | −0.15 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Cameroon is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+15.6
Yield revolution S22+11.3
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+7.4
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.9
Great-power détente S18−0.8
100-day pandemic defence S24−3.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−9.6
Superintelligence takeoff S15−22.3
Middle East settlement S21−34.7
Energy abundance S16−65.3
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +15.6 | 21.8 | 6.1 | 26 | 42 | Investment Attraction & Projection 4.7 · Nascent |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Gainer | +11.3 | 15.0 | 3.7 | 18 | 27 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +7.4 | 14.1 | 6.7 | 17 | 52 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.9 | 9.4 | 3.5 | 25 | 71 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 4.5 · Nascent |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | −0.8 | 6.3 | 7.2 | 24 | 113 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4.3 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | −3.5 | 7.6 | 11.2 | 17 | 161 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −9.6 | 13.3 | 22.8 | 15 | 148 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −22.3 | 4.3 | 26.6 | 11 | 120 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −34.7 | 7.8 | 42.4 | 27 | 185 | Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −65.3 | 3.0 | 68.3 | 14 | 185 | Energy Technologies 1 · Inception |