Kuwait · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years11.9rank 133 of 197 · 3 years: 11.7

Worst case−11.9%Infrastructure collapse · tail −10.0%

Opportunity · 10 years−6.5rank 132 of 197 · 3 years: −7.7

Best case+13100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed32%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.63expected index points from best practice

Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkPolitical Institutions & Civic Participationweakest point in 4 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Hybrid campaign. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; little renewable water per head; industry as a share of gdp; adult obesity rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Kuwait’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.89

Pandemic S14−0.69

AI diffusion shock S13−0.67

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.53

Food and water shock S11−0.49

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.42

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41

Global financial crisis S03−0.41

Chokepoint closure S05−0.38

Hybrid campaign S06−0.34

Mass displacement S08−0.31

Disaster in the core S10−0.25

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.21

Energy supply shock S09−0.17

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.86	−0.89	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 4	24	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.64	−0.69	−0.99	−0.43	0	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.7 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.70	−0.67	−0.95	−0.42	▼ 1	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.56	−0.53	−0.77	−0.34	▼ 1	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.59	−0.49	−0.78	−0.34	▼ 1	17	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.54	−0.42	−0.55	−0.24	0	12	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 4.8 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.62	−0.41	−0.61	−0.27	▼ 1	14	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.46	−0.41	−0.69	−0.30	▲ 2	13	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.2 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.48	−0.38	−0.56	−0.25	0	9	Maritime Power 4.3 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.44	−0.34	−0.49	−0.21	0	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.1 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.58	−0.31	−0.51	−0.22	0	14	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5 · Nascent
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.38	−0.25	−0.41	−0.18	▲ 3	11	Energy Infrastructure 6.4 · Foundational
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.23	−0.21	−0.33	−0.14	▲ 4	7	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.6 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	Low 0.19	−0.17	−0.24	−0.11	▲ 5	7	Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−1.07	−1.31	−0.47	−0.47	−0.47	−1.17	−1.09	−1.07	−0.93
Pandemic	−0.73	−0.37	−0.30	−0.89	−0.78	−0.83	−0.78	−0.76	−0.76
AI diffusion shock	−0.81	−0.37	−0.34	−1.00	−0.75	−1.03	−0.87	−0.48	−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.64	−0.29	−0.26	·	−0.67	−0.64	−0.67	−0.65	−0.98
Food and water shock	−0.06	−0.56	−0.25	−0.69	−0.66	−0.70	−0.33	−0.56	−0.64
Legitimacy crisis	−0.31	·	−0.62	−0.31	−0.72	−1.00	−0.82	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.75	−0.22	−0.28	−0.34	·	−0.69	·	−0.71	−0.71
Global financial crisis	−0.21	−0.21	−0.19	−0.42	−0.42	−0.52	−0.70	−0.60	−0.48
Chokepoint closure	−0.05	−0.62	−0.52	·	−0.28	−0.60	−0.24	−0.48	−0.61
Hybrid campaign	−0.26	−0.56	−0.61	·	−0.62	−0.58	·	−0.23	−0.23
Mass displacement	·	−0.31	−0.24	−0.64	−0.52	−0.72	−0.31	−0.04	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.51	−0.15	−0.38	−0.17	−0.43	−0.23	−0.17	−0.17
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.18	−0.10	−0.24	−0.22	−0.30	−0.37	−0.22	−0.25
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−0.24	−0.09	−0.10	−0.10	−0.22	−0.26	−0.25	−0.22

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Kuwait is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+13.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+7.3

Great-power détente S18+5.6

Yield revolution S22+3.8

Sovereign debt reset S19−3.2

Middle East settlement S21−5.0

Emerging-market breakout S20−7.4

Digital state leapfrog S23−8.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15−14.1

Energy abundance S16−51.0

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+13.3	18.3	5.1	29	76	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+7.3	15.6	8.3	30	53	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+5.6	17.3	11.7	34	75	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+3.8	7.2	3.4	29	67	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−3.2	1.6	4.8	38	175	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	−5.0	26.9	31.9	41	159	Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−7.4	15.8	23.2	40	183	Technical & Vocational Skills 7 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−8.8	10.3	19.1	28	140	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−14.1	12.5	26.7	19	76	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Loser	−51.0	3.6	54.6	24	176	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception