Monaco · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years21.7rank 84 of 197 · 3 years: 21.8

Worst case−17.0%Pandemic · tail −16.8%

Opportunity · 10 years−4.9rank 115 of 197 · 3 years: −4.3

Best case+21100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed25%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.03expected index points from best practice

Breadth8 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; internet users as a share of population; services as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Monaco’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−1.01

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−1.00

Global financial crisis S03−0.97

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.86

AI diffusion shock S13−0.82

Energy supply shock S09−0.75

Chokepoint closure S05−0.55

Hybrid campaign S06−0.45

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.30

Disaster in the core S10−0.23

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.19

Mass displacement S08−0.19

Food and water shock S11−0.11

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 1.00	−1.01	−1.41	−0.64	▼ 6	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	High 1.00	−1.00	−1.25	−0.57	▼ 9	19	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.96	−0.97	−1.38	−0.61	▼ 7	21	Economic Output & Productivity 3.5 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.86	−0.86	−1.10	−0.51	▼ 2	18	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.95	−0.82	−1.16	−0.53	▼ 4	15	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.78	−0.75	−0.94	−0.42	▲ 2	17	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.60	−0.55	−0.63	−0.29	▲ 2	14	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.55	−0.45	−0.53	−0.25	▼ 5	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.58	−0.42	−0.51	−0.24	▲ 2	11	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.46	−0.30	−0.44	−0.20	▲ 5	6	Force Generation & Mobilisation 0.7 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.38	−0.23	−0.40	−0.18	▲ 5	10	Energy Infrastructure 3.1 · Nascent
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.19	−0.19	−0.27	−0.12	▲ 8	10	Energy Infrastructure 3.4 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.39	−0.19	−0.34	−0.15	▲ 3	6	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 8.3 · Foundational
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.12	−0.11	−0.16	−0.07	▲ 6	9	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.59	−0.55	−0.34	−1.40	−1.23	−1.31	−1.23	−1.20	−1.20
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.62	−0.55	−0.38	·	−1.37	−1.32	−1.37	−1.34	−2.01
Global financial crisis	−0.36	−0.48	−0.33	−1.01	−1.01	−1.27	−1.69	−1.45	−1.16
Infrastructure collapse	−0.58	−1.28	−0.37	−0.50	−0.50	−1.24	−1.16	−1.13	−0.99
AI diffusion shock	−0.63	−0.47	−0.32	−1.31	−0.98	−1.35	−1.15	−0.63	−0.56
Energy supply shock	−0.06	−0.93	−0.30	−0.47	−0.47	−1.05	−1.24	−1.20	−1.06
Chokepoint closure	−0.06	−0.86	−0.46	·	−0.45	−0.96	−0.38	−0.77	−0.99
Hybrid campaign	−0.26	−0.77	−0.57	·	−0.91	−0.85	·	−0.34	−0.34
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.52	−0.20	−0.24	−0.39	·	−0.79	·	−0.81	−0.81
Legitimacy crisis	−0.18	·	−0.36	−0.24	−0.55	−0.77	−0.63	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.47	−0.11	−0.35	−0.16	−0.40	−0.21	−0.16	−0.16
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.16	−0.07	−0.22	−0.20	−0.27	−0.33	−0.20	−0.22
Mass displacement	·	−0.20	−0.11	−0.40	−0.33	−0.45	−0.19	−0.02	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.12	−0.04	−0.15	−0.14	−0.15	−0.07	−0.12	−0.14

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Monaco is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+20.5

Energy abundance S16+15.8

Middle East settlement S21+9.5

Great-power détente S18+3.6

Digital state leapfrog S23−6.7

Sovereign debt reset S19−9.7

Yield revolution S22−11.6

Emerging-market breakout S20−13.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−21.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−28.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+20.5	23.0	2.6	25	59	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+15.8	16.1	0.3	16	67	Energy Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+9.5	10.9	1.4	25	84	Alliances & Security Cooperation 3 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+3.6	20.7	17.1	26	87	Export Capability & Sophistication 4.7 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−6.7	2.9	9.6	24	119	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−9.7	0.0	9.7	48	195	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 8.7 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Loser	−11.6	1.3	12.9	21	154	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Loser	−13.3	3.4	16.7	28	191	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−21.9	12.6	34.5	18	114	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Loser	−28.3	9.9	38.2	28	189	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception