Mauritania · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years40.5rank 30 of 197 · 3 years: 41.4

Worst case−28.5%Energy supply shock · tail −26.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−5.6rank 119 of 197 · 3 years: −8.2

Best case+10Energy abundance · gainer in 0 of 10

Shock absorbed17%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.34expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Legitimacy crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; staple foods among the top five imports; public debt relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; low life expectancy at birth; youth unemployment rate; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Mauritania’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−1.02

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.94

Food and water shock S11−0.93

Global financial crisis S03−0.92

Pandemic S14−0.80

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.77

Chokepoint closure S05−0.74

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.66

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.57

Mass displacement S08−0.55

AI diffusion shock S13−0.52

Disaster in the core S10−0.43

Hybrid campaign S06−0.21

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.97	−1.02	−1.23	−0.55	▼ 3	27	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.79	−0.94	−1.14	−0.50	▼ 4	18	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.3 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.88	−0.93	−1.16	−0.51	▼ 5	29	Population Health 1.9 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.75	−0.92	−1.10	−0.48	▼ 4	19	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.9 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.64	−0.80	−0.93	−0.42	▼ 3	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.66	−0.77	−0.88	−0.40	▼ 3	17	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.77	−0.74	−0.91	−0.40	0	13	Maritime Power 0.9 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.81	−0.66	−0.79	−0.35	▼ 2	8	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.53	−0.58	−0.68	−0.31	0	11	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.79	−0.57	−0.68	−0.32	▼ 2	12	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.76	−0.55	−0.68	−0.30	▼ 3	11	Health System Capability 2.8 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.46	−0.52	−0.59	−0.27	▲ 2	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.49	−0.43	−0.53	−0.23	▲ 1	10	Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.21	−0.25	−0.11	▲ 1	4	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.10	−1.45	−0.54	−0.60	−0.60	−1.36	−1.61	−1.55	−1.38
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.10	−0.78	−0.44	−1.08	−0.97	−1.34	−1.62	−0.97	−1.11
Food and water shock	−0.10	−1.06	−0.48	−1.30	−1.24	−1.33	−0.62	−1.06	−1.22
Global financial crisis	−0.32	−0.47	−0.42	−0.94	−0.94	−1.17	−1.57	−1.34	−1.07
Pandemic	−0.47	−0.45	−0.37	−1.10	−0.96	−1.03	−0.96	−0.94	−0.94
Infrastructure collapse	−0.44	−1.23	−0.44	−0.44	−0.44	−1.09	−1.02	−1.00	−0.88
Chokepoint closure	−0.09	−1.22	−1.01	·	−0.55	−1.18	−0.47	−0.94	−1.21
Legitimacy crisis	−0.33	·	−0.96	−0.50	−1.16	−1.62	−1.33	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.40	−0.33	−0.30	·	−0.78	−0.75	−0.78	−0.76	−1.14
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.48	−0.34	−0.44	−0.54	·	−1.10	·	−1.12	−1.12
Mass displacement	·	−0.56	−0.42	−1.14	−0.93	−1.28	−0.54	−0.07	·
AI diffusion shock	−0.39	−0.31	−0.28	−0.82	−0.61	−0.84	−0.72	−0.40	−0.35
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.90	−0.27	−0.66	−0.30	−0.75	−0.40	−0.30	−0.30
Hybrid campaign	−0.13	−0.35	−0.38	·	−0.39	−0.36	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Mauritania is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+9.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+9.3

Yield revolution S22+8.6

Middle East settlement S21+7.1

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.3

Great-power détente S18+2.0

100-day pandemic defence S24−4.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.9

Digital state leapfrog S23−12.9

Superintelligence takeoff S15−31.5

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+9.7	10.9	1.2	12	93	Energy Technologies 1 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+9.3	13.1	3.8	24	35	Financial Regulation & Integrity 4.5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+8.6	12.5	4.0	14	39	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+7.1	12.9	5.8	22	98	Energy Infrastructure 3.8 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+6.3	15.6	9.3	20	105	Technical & Vocational Skills 3.5 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+2.0	9.5	7.5	19	97	Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−4.6	7.1	11.7	12	164	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−5.9	10.5	16.4	13	110	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Loser	−12.9	9.6	22.6	11	168	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.6 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−31.5	3.2	34.8	8	167	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.2 · Inception