Seychelles · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years24.0rank 76 of 197 · 3 years: 24.2

Worst case−17.7%Energy supply shock · tail −16.9%

Opportunity · 10 years−0.4rank 87 of 197 · 3 years: −1.5

Best case+12Energy abundance · gainer in 1 of 10

Shock absorbed24%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.06expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Seychelles’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.93

Global financial crisis S03−0.88

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.87

Pandemic S14−0.85

Chokepoint closure S05−0.81

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.67

AI diffusion shock S13−0.65

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48

Disaster in the core S10−0.44

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.41

Food and water shock S11−0.41

Mass displacement S08−0.24

Hybrid campaign S06−0.22

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.91	−0.93	−1.13	−0.51	▼ 5	26	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.85	−0.88	−1.22	−0.54	▼ 2	22	Investment Attraction & Projection 3.2 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.82	−0.87	−1.04	−0.47	▼ 1	26	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.79	−0.85	−1.11	−0.50	0	22	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.85	−0.81	−0.95	−0.44	▼ 3	22	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.68	−0.67	−0.97	−0.43	▼ 2	20	Energy Infrastructure 2.6 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.70	−0.65	−0.86	−0.39	0	20	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.57	−0.58	−0.72	−0.32	▼ 1	20	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.68	−0.48	−0.57	−0.26	▼ 1	15	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.64	−0.44	−0.70	−0.31	▼ 2	15	Energy Infrastructure 2.8 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.62	−0.41	−0.59	−0.26	▼ 1	13	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 1.1 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.44	−0.41	−0.57	−0.25	▼ 1	11	Resource Infrastructure 0.3 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.24	−0.38	−0.17	▲ 1	7	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.25	−0.22	−0.26	−0.12	0	6	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.04	−1.25	−0.48	−0.56	−0.56	−1.26	−1.50	−1.44	−1.28
Global financial crisis	−0.20	−0.46	−0.40	−0.91	−0.91	−1.14	−1.52	−1.30	−1.04
Infrastructure collapse	−0.29	−1.41	−0.49	−0.50	−0.50	−1.26	−1.18	−1.15	−1.01
Pandemic	−0.29	−0.49	−0.39	−1.20	−1.05	−1.12	−1.05	−1.03	−1.03
Chokepoint closure	−0.04	−1.30	−0.98	·	−0.62	−1.34	−0.54	−1.07	−1.38
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.56	−0.31	−0.78	−0.70	−0.96	−1.16	−0.70	−0.80
AI diffusion shock	−0.29	−0.40	−0.35	−1.06	−0.80	−1.09	−0.93	−0.51	−0.45
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.26	−0.34	−0.30	·	−0.79	−0.76	−0.79	−0.77	−1.16
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.29	−0.30	−0.38	−0.48	·	−0.96	·	−0.98	−0.98
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.92	−0.28	−0.68	−0.31	−0.77	−0.41	−0.31	−0.31
Legitimacy crisis	−0.15	·	−0.60	−0.31	−0.73	−1.02	−0.84	·	·
Food and water shock	−0.04	−0.46	−0.21	−0.57	−0.54	−0.58	−0.27	−0.46	−0.53
Mass displacement	·	−0.25	−0.18	−0.50	−0.41	−0.56	−0.24	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.08	−0.38	−0.41	·	−0.42	−0.40	·	−0.16	−0.16

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Seychelles is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+11.9

Middle East settlement S21+9.8

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.3

Emerging-market breakout S20+6.2

Great-power détente S18+5.6

100-day pandemic defence S24+4.9

Yield revolution S22+4.3

Digital state leapfrog S23−4.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.3

Superintelligence takeoff S15−18.8

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+11.9	12.8	1.0	14	83	Energy Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+9.8	14.3	4.5	27	81	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.3	10.0	2.7	44	55	Financial Regulation & Integrity 7.8 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+6.2	13.9	7.7	28	106	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+5.6	11.9	6.2	24	76	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 4.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+4.9	13.8	9.0	19	106	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+4.3	7.7	3.4	19	62	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−4.3	11.6	15.9	20	102	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−9.3	13.9	23.2	22	124	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−18.8	7.1	25.9	13	90	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception