Senegal · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years17.6rank 104 of 197 · 3 years: 17.7

Worst case−13.3%Energy supply shock · tail −12.6%

Opportunity · 10 years+7.5rank 53 of 197 · 3 years: +5.6

Best case+24Yield revolution · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.90expected index points from best practice

Breadth12 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of population aged under 15; staple foods among the top five imports; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; remittances relative to gdp; low real gdp per head.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Senegal’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.85

Food and water shock S11−0.79

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.78

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.73

Global financial crisis S03−0.63

Pandemic S14−0.63

Chokepoint closure S05−0.59

AI diffusion shock S13−0.59

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.51

Disaster in the core S10−0.43

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.42

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.37

Mass displacement S08−0.37

Hybrid campaign S06−0.22

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.87	−0.85	−1.12	−0.49	▼ 3	26	Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.87	−0.79	−1.14	−0.50	▼ 7	29	Population Health 4.5 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.71	−0.78	−0.99	−0.44	▼ 1	28	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.72	−0.73	−1.04	−0.45	▼ 3	27	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 4.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.60	−0.63	−0.90	−0.39	▼ 1	25	Labour & Employment 4.7 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.55	−0.63	−0.85	−0.37	▲ 1	25	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.4 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.68	−0.59	−0.80	−0.35	0	23	Maritime Power 3.3 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.56	−0.59	−0.75	−0.33	0	23	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.69	−0.51	−0.67	−0.30	▼ 1	20	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.57	−0.43	−0.62	−0.27	▼ 2	16	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.62	−0.42	−0.63	−0.28	▼ 1	13	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.1 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.36	−0.37	−0.50	−0.22	▲ 2	16	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.60	−0.37	−0.53	−0.23	0	18	Labour & Employment 5.7 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.26	−0.22	−0.29	−0.13	▲ 1	12	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.20	−1.19	−0.45	−0.50	−0.50	−1.12	−1.33	−1.28	−1.14
Food and water shock	−0.09	−0.89	−0.40	−1.09	−1.04	−1.12	−0.52	−0.89	−1.02
Infrastructure collapse	−0.86	−1.16	−0.42	−0.42	−0.42	−1.04	−0.97	−0.95	−0.83
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.60	−0.34	−0.84	−0.76	−1.04	−1.26	−0.76	−0.86
Global financial crisis	−0.31	−0.32	−0.29	−0.64	−0.64	−0.80	−1.06	−0.91	−0.73
Pandemic	−0.64	−0.34	−0.27	−0.81	−0.71	−0.76	−0.71	−0.70	−0.70
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.97	−0.82	·	−0.43	−0.93	−0.37	−0.74	−0.96
AI diffusion shock	−0.68	−0.33	−0.29	−0.87	−0.65	−0.90	−0.76	−0.42	−0.37
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.87	−0.27	−0.35	−0.43	·	−0.87	·	−0.89	−0.89
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.89	−0.27	−0.66	−0.30	−0.74	−0.39	−0.30	−0.30
Legitimacy crisis	−0.31	·	−0.62	−0.31	−0.73	−1.01	−0.83	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.45	−0.20	−0.18	·	−0.46	−0.44	−0.46	−0.45	−0.68
Mass displacement	·	−0.37	−0.28	−0.76	−0.62	−0.85	−0.36	−0.04	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.16	−0.36	−0.38	·	−0.39	−0.37	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Senegal is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Yield revolution S22+23.8

Emerging-market breakout S20+23.2

Sovereign debt reset S19+19.6

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+14.5

Middle East settlement S21+9.6

Great-power détente S18+6.1

Energy abundance S16+5.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+5.2

Digital state leapfrog S23+3.6

Superintelligence takeoff S15−12.3

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+23.8	27.0	3.2	30	6	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+23.2	28.1	5.0	34	10	Technical & Vocational Skills 6 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+19.6	22.4	2.8	42	2	Health System Capability 8 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+14.5	21.7	7.1	29	27	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+9.6	20.4	10.7	37	83	Energy Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+6.1	11.8	5.6	35	73	Export Capability & Sophistication 6 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+5.8	18.2	12.3	22	113	Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+5.2	14.2	9.0	29	104	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.6 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+3.6	20.7	17.2	23	56	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−12.3	7.6	19.9	17	71	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception