Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · CUB

Cuba

Baseline index 5.95Rank 98 of 197NascentLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years16.9rank 107 of 197 · 3 years: 15.8
Worst case−15.6%Infrastructure collapse · tail −13.3%
Opportunity · 10 years−4.9rank 114 of 197 · 3 years: −5.5
Best case+22100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed25%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.86expected index points from best practice
Breadth10 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: staple foods among the top five imports; consumer price inflation; share of population aged 65 and over; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Cuba’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.93
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.74
AI diffusion shock S13−0.69
Pandemic S14−0.69
Global financial crisis S03−0.65
Food and water shock S11−0.65
Energy supply shock S09−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51
Disaster in the core S10−0.46
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.42
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35
Chokepoint closure S05−0.28
Hybrid campaign S06−0.18
Mass displacement S08−0.17
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.83−0.93−1.20−0.53▼ 518Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.60−0.74−0.86−0.38▼ 519Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 0.5 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.69−0.91−0.40▼ 320Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.69−0.69−1.07−0.47▼ 117Fiscal Capacity & Public Finance 3.2 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.50−0.65−0.74−0.32▼ 218Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 0.7 · Inception
Food and water shock S11High 0.68−0.65−0.89−0.39▼ 717Trade Facilitation & Logistics 3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09Medium 0.52−0.52−0.67−0.29▲ 211Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.62−0.51−0.63−0.28▲ 116Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 1.5 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.68−0.46−0.74−0.32▼ 111Financial System Depth & Access 3.2 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.37−0.42−0.52−0.23▼ 111Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.1 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.46−0.35−0.46−0.20▲ 38Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05Low 0.31−0.28−0.37−0.16▲ 58Economic Leverage & Dependence 3.3 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.23−0.18−0.25−0.11▲ 26Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.2 · Inception
Mass displacement S08Low 0.31−0.17−0.28−0.12▲ 25Political Institutions & Civic Participation 3.1 · Nascent

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−1.16−1.35−0.48−0.48−0.48−1.21−1.13−1.10−0.96
Sovereign funding crisis−0.08−0.62−0.35−0.86−0.77−1.06−1.29−0.77−0.88
AI diffusion shock−0.87−0.38−0.34−1.02−0.77−1.05−0.89−0.49−0.44
Pandemic−0.73−0.37−0.30−0.89−0.78−0.83−0.78−0.76−0.76
Global financial crisis−0.33−0.33−0.29−0.65−0.65−0.81−1.09−0.93−0.74
Food and water shock−0.07−0.74−0.33−0.90−0.86−0.92−0.43−0.74−0.84
Energy supply shock−0.12−0.72−0.27−0.30−0.30−0.68−0.80−0.78−0.69
Legitimacy crisis−0.38·−0.75−0.38−0.88−1.22−1.00··
Disaster in the core−0.03−0.96−0.29−0.71−0.32−0.80−0.42−0.32−0.32
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.54−0.22−0.20·−0.52−0.50−0.52−0.51−0.77
Single-supplier cut-off−0.67−0.18−0.23−0.29·−0.59·−0.60−0.60
Chokepoint closure−0.03−0.45−0.38·−0.20−0.44−0.17−0.35−0.45
Hybrid campaign−0.13−0.29−0.31·−0.32−0.30·−0.12−0.12
Mass displacement·−0.18−0.13−0.36−0.29−0.40−0.17−0.02·

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Cuba is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+21.9
Energy abundance S16+9.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+0.5
Middle East settlement S21+0.5
Yield revolution S22−3.0
Emerging-market breakout S20−3.9
Digital state leapfrog S23−7.8
Great-power détente S18−11.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−19.1
Superintelligence takeoff S15−23.7
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+21.926.54.64456Research Talent & Knowledge Creation 7.3 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Mixed+9.711.11.52292Energy Technologies 2.8 · Inception
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+0.54.13.624133Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 3 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Mixed+0.57.77.330137Trade Facilitation & Logistics 4.5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−3.020.022.931119Technology Adoption & Diffusion 5 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−3.910.914.826174Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−7.89.817.520129Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Loser−11.47.819.220164Investment Attraction & Projection 3 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Loser−19.118.737.941167Regulatory Governance & Strategic Controls 6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−23.78.031.716130Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1 · Inception