Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years6.1rank 176 of 197 · 3 years: 6.0
Worst case−4.2%Energy supply shock · tail −4.2%
Opportunity · 10 years+22.0rank 19 of 197 · 3 years: +22.5
Best case+61Energy abundance · gainer in 5 of 10
Shock absorbed53%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.15expected index points from best practice
Breadth0 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; urban share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Spain’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.58
AI diffusion shock S13−0.58
Pandemic S14−0.58
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.54
Global financial crisis S03−0.52
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.43
Chokepoint closure S05−0.40
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.32
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.30
Hybrid campaign S06−0.29
Disaster in the core S10−0.28
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.25
Mass displacement S08−0.20
Food and water shock S11−0.14
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.92 | −0.58 | −1.18 | −0.51 | 0 | 13 | Energy Technologies 10.7 · Transitional |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.86 | −0.58 | −1.18 | −0.51 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.2 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.80 | −0.58 | −1.24 | −0.54 | 0 | 11 | Labour & Employment 12.4 · Established |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.78 | −0.54 | −1.13 | −0.49 | 0 | 14 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.7 · Transitional |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.75 | −0.52 | −1.12 | −0.49 | 0 | 10 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 11.9 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.62 | −0.43 | −0.89 | −0.39 | 0 | 10 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 11.9 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.73 | −0.40 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 12 | Resource Infrastructure 11 · Transitional |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.46 | −0.32 | −0.65 | −0.28 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.8 · Foundational |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.61 | −0.30 | −0.61 | −0.27 | 0 | 7 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 6.6 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.29 | −0.60 | −0.26 | 0 | 9 | Cyber & Electromagnetic Operations 11.9 · Transitional |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.59 | −0.28 | −0.65 | −0.28 | 0 | 11 | National Resilience & Crisis Management 13.6 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.52 | −0.25 | −0.53 | −0.23 | 0 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 12.3 · Established |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.52 | −0.20 | −0.46 | −0.20 | 0 | 3 | Labour & Employment 13.3 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.25 | −0.14 | −0.32 | −0.14 | 0 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.13 | −0.81 | −0.30 | −0.34 | −0.34 | −0.76 | −0.90 | −0.86 | −0.77 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.76 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.85 | −0.64 | −0.87 | −0.74 | −0.41 | −0.36 |
| Pandemic | −0.61 | −0.31 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.67 | −0.78 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.70 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.56 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.24 | −0.53 | −0.53 | −0.66 | −0.88 | −0.75 | −0.60 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.75 | −0.45 | −0.52 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.05 | −0.66 | −0.56 | · | −0.30 | −0.64 | −0.25 | −0.51 | −0.66 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.41 | −0.17 | −0.15 | · | −0.40 | −0.38 | −0.40 | −0.39 | −0.58 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.59 | −0.16 | −0.20 | −0.25 | · | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.52 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.22 | −0.47 | −0.51 | · | −0.52 | −0.49 | · | −0.20 | −0.20 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.58 | −0.18 | −0.43 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.26 | −0.19 | −0.19 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.18 | · | −0.36 | −0.18 | −0.42 | −0.59 | −0.48 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.15 | −0.42 | −0.34 | −0.47 | −0.20 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.16 | −0.07 | −0.20 | −0.19 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.16 | −0.18 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Spain is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+61.2
100-day pandemic defence S24+51.2
Middle East settlement S21+39.6
Great-power détente S18+22.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15+18.5
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+9.3
Digital state leapfrog S23+7.1
Emerging-market breakout S20+3.7
Sovereign debt reset S19+2.6
Yield revolution S22+2.4
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +61.2 | 65.4 | 4.2 | 67 | 8 | Energy Technologies 12 · Established |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +51.2 | 52.5 | 1.3 | 71 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +39.6 | 42.6 | 3.0 | 72 | 11 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +22.4 | 31.1 | 8.7 | 71 | 24 | Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 13.8 · Established |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +18.5 | 37.0 | 18.5 | 53 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 7.5 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +9.3 | 32.2 | 22.9 | 72 | 47 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +7.1 | 12.9 | 5.8 | 65 | 39 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 11.8 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +3.7 | 13.1 | 9.3 | 71 | 129 | Technical & Vocational Skills 13.5 · Established |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 7.5 | 4.9 | 70 | 106 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 13.5 · Established |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +2.4 | 8.6 | 6.1 | 72 | 80 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 13.6 · Established |