Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Small and exposed. Small states with narrow economies and few buffers. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Exposed over 10 years: higher vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years29.4rank 58 of 197 · 3 years: 28.2
Worst case−20.5%Energy supply shock · tail −19.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−5.5rank 118 of 197 · 3 years: −6.7
Best case+13Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 1 of 10
Shock absorbed20%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+1.20expected index points from best practice
Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; little renewable water per head; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Maldives’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Energy supply shock S09−0.95
Chokepoint closure S05−0.93
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.86
AI diffusion shock S13−0.83
Global financial crisis S03−0.82
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.81
Pandemic S14−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.58
Food and water shock S11−0.56
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.36
Disaster in the core S10−0.33
Hybrid campaign S06−0.32
Mass displacement S08−0.26
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.90 | −0.95 | −1.11 | −0.50 | ▼ 5 | 27 | Energy Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.98 | −0.93 | −1.09 | −0.50 | ▼ 6 | 21 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.77 | −0.86 | −1.09 | −0.48 | ▼ 5 | 23 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 1.8 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.85 | −0.83 | −1.05 | −0.47 | ▼ 4 | 22 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.72 | −0.82 | −1.04 | −0.46 | ▼ 1 | 24 | Economic Output & Productivity 2.8 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.75 | −0.81 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 23 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.69 | −0.77 | −0.98 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 22 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.54 | −0.58 | −0.70 | −0.31 | ▲ 1 | 17 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Medium 0.58 | −0.56 | −0.76 | −0.34 | ▼ 2 | 16 | Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.66 | −0.48 | −0.64 | −0.29 | ▲ 2 | 19 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 2.5 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.48 | −0.36 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.43 | −0.33 | −0.47 | −0.21 | ▲ 3 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 3 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.37 | −0.32 | −0.38 | −0.17 | 0 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.26 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 2 | 11 | Labour & Employment 6.3 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −1.20 | −0.49 | −0.57 | −0.57 | −1.29 | −1.53 | −1.47 | −1.31 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −1.42 | −1.14 | · | −0.72 | −1.55 | −0.62 | −1.24 | −1.60 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.71 | −0.39 | −1.00 | −0.90 | −1.24 | −1.50 | −0.90 | −1.03 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.46 | −0.50 | −0.43 | −1.32 | −0.99 | −1.37 | −1.16 | −0.64 | −0.57 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.22 | −0.43 | −0.37 | −0.85 | −0.85 | −1.07 | −1.42 | −1.22 | −0.97 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.43 | −1.28 | −0.45 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.16 | −1.08 | −1.06 | −0.93 |
| Pandemic | −0.39 | −0.44 | −0.35 | −1.07 | −0.93 | −1.00 | −0.93 | −0.91 | −0.91 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.32 | −0.34 | −0.30 | · | −0.79 | −0.76 | −0.79 | −0.77 | −1.16 |
| Food and water shock | −0.06 | −0.59 | −0.29 | −0.79 | −0.75 | −0.80 | −0.38 | −0.64 | −0.74 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.19 | · | −0.70 | −0.37 | −0.87 | −1.22 | −1.00 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.33 | −0.21 | −0.28 | −0.34 | · | −0.69 | · | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.67 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.22 | −0.56 | −0.30 | −0.22 | −0.22 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.13 | −0.55 | −0.57 | · | −0.61 | −0.57 | · | −0.23 | −0.23 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.27 | −0.20 | −0.54 | −0.44 | −0.61 | −0.26 | −0.03 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Maldives is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.2
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.2
Middle East settlement S21+7.1
100-day pandemic defence S24+5.2
Yield revolution S22+3.4
Energy abundance S16−1.1
Digital state leapfrog S23−8.4
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.3
Great-power détente S18−10.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−37.0
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.2 | 16.5 | 3.3 | 26 | 55 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +7.2 | 10.4 | 3.2 | 34 | 57 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 6 · Foundational |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | +7.1 | 16.7 | 9.5 | 25 | 97 | Energy Infrastructure 3.9 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Mixed | +5.2 | 11.5 | 6.2 | 18 | 105 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +3.4 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 17 | 71 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Mixed | −1.1 | 13.7 | 14.8 | 14 | 136 | Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | −8.4 | 10.6 | 19.1 | 19 | 134 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −9.3 | 10.5 | 19.8 | 20 | 125 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 9.7 | 20.1 | 23 | 162 | Export Capability & Sophistication 4 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −37.0 | 7.3 | 44.3 | 12 | 183 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |