Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Europe · CYP

Cyprus

Baseline index 8.51Rank 64 of 197FoundationalEuropeAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years14.9rank 119 of 197 · 3 years: 15.0
Worst case−10.1%Energy supply shock · tail −9.7%
Opportunity · 10 years+3.2rank 74 of 197 · 3 years: +3.8
Best case+24100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed35%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.85expected index points from best practice
Breadth11 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; trade in goods and services relative to gdp; internet users as a share of population; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; services as a share of gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Cyprus’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.86
Pandemic S14−0.84
Global financial crisis S03−0.78
Chokepoint closure S05−0.76
AI diffusion shock S13−0.76
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.74
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.63
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.55
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.48
Hybrid campaign S06−0.43
Disaster in the core S10−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.29
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.28
Food and water shock S11−0.23
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Energy supply shock S09High 0.91−0.86−1.16−0.51▼ 325Energy Technologies 0.2 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.83−0.84−1.28−0.56026Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03High 0.92−0.78−1.36−0.60▼ 123Economic Output & Productivity 6.9 · Foundational
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.85−0.76−1.01−0.44▼ 224Resource Infrastructure 1.3 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.88−0.76−1.18−0.53026Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.72−0.74−1.02−0.45▲ 221Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.1 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01High 0.68−0.63−0.94−0.42018Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04High 0.65−0.55−0.93−0.41018Energy Infrastructure 5.4 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02High 0.66−0.48−0.66−0.29015Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06Medium 0.54−0.43−0.59−0.26014Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10Medium 0.56−0.34−0.61−0.27▲ 210Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.59−0.29−0.52−0.2309Social Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07Medium 0.46−0.28−0.47−0.21▲ 212Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.5 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11Low 0.32−0.23−0.43−0.1908Resource Infrastructure 2.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Energy supply shock−0.20−1.20−0.45−0.50−0.50−1.13−1.34−1.29−1.15
Pandemic−0.85−0.45−0.37−1.09−0.95−1.02−0.95−0.93−0.93
Global financial crisis−0.39−0.39−0.35−0.79−0.79−0.99−1.31−1.13−0.90
Chokepoint closure−0.10−1.25−1.06·−0.56−1.20−0.48−0.96−1.23
AI diffusion shock−0.92−0.42−0.38−1.11−0.84−1.15−0.97−0.54−0.48
Infrastructure collapse−0.88−1.08−0.38−0.38−0.38−0.96−0.90−0.88−0.77
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.77−0.34−0.30·−0.79−0.76−0.79−0.77−1.16
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.46−0.26−0.63−0.57−0.78−0.95−0.57−0.65
Single-supplier cut-off−0.88−0.25−0.32−0.40·−0.81·−0.82−0.82
Hybrid campaign−0.32−0.70−0.76·−0.78−0.73·−0.29−0.29
Disaster in the core−0.02−0.70−0.21−0.52−0.23−0.58−0.31−0.23−0.23
Mass displacement·−0.29−0.22−0.60−0.49−0.67−0.28−0.03·
Legitimacy crisis−0.21·−0.41−0.21−0.48−0.67−0.55··
Food and water shock−0.03−0.27−0.12−0.33−0.31−0.33−0.16−0.27−0.30

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Cyprus is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+24.2
Middle East settlement S21+18.8
Energy abundance S16+16.8
Great-power détente S18+11.5
Digital state leapfrog S23−1.0
Sovereign debt reset S19−2.3
Emerging-market breakout S20−2.5
Yield revolution S22−6.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−9.0
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.5
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Gainer+24.226.62.33552Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+18.824.65.84154Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+16.825.99.22663Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Great-power détente S18 ↗Gainer+11.526.114.74352Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 7.5 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed−1.07.58.53577Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed−2.35.57.756167Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10.5 · Transitional
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed−2.59.211.642166Energy Infrastructure 6.5 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗Mixed−6.83.810.634130Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Mixed−9.017.326.32560Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−9.517.126.636126Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent