Cabo Verde · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Fragile, with upside. Highly vulnerable, but in line for debt relief and higher yields. One of 25 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years27.6rank 65 of 197 · 3 years: 27.1

Worst case−20.0%Energy supply shock · tail −19.3%

Opportunity · 10 years−1.6rank 93 of 197 · 3 years: −1.9

Best case+13Sovereign debt reset · gainer in 2 of 10

Shock absorbed21%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+1.13expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkAdvanced Materials & Manufacturingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, Chokepoint closure. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; public debt relative to gdp; little renewable water per head; remittances relative to gdp; youth unemployment rate.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Cabo Verde’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Energy supply shock S09−0.94

Global financial crisis S03−0.91

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.88

Pandemic S14−0.80

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.75

Chokepoint closure S05−0.75

AI diffusion shock S13−0.66

Disaster in the core S10−0.57

Food and water shock S11−0.56

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.47

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.46

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.43

Mass displacement S08−0.26

Hybrid campaign S06−0.20

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.91	−0.94	−1.11	−0.50	▼ 6	25	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.83	−0.91	−1.19	−0.52	▼ 4	21	Economic Output & Productivity 2.1 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.81	−0.88	−1.03	−0.47	▼ 2	25	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 0 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.71	−0.80	−1.01	−0.45	▼ 1	21	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.72	−0.75	−1.03	−0.45	▼ 2	22	Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.79	−0.75	−0.87	−0.40	▼ 5	20	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.68	−0.66	−0.83	−0.37	▼ 1	17	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.76	−0.57	−0.81	−0.36	▼ 5	19	Energy Infrastructure 2.4 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.58	−0.56	−0.75	−0.33	▼ 2	16	Resource Infrastructure 0 · Inception
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.75	−0.47	−0.70	−0.31	▼ 1	14	Force Generation & Mobilisation 1.5 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.44	−0.46	−0.55	−0.24	▲ 1	13	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.59	−0.43	−0.50	−0.22	0	13	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.43	−0.26	−0.37	−0.16	0	7	Labour & Employment 6 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.23	−0.20	−0.24	−0.10	▲ 1	5	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Energy supply shock	−0.08	−1.23	−0.43	−0.57	−0.57	−1.29	−1.53	−1.48	−1.31
Global financial crisis	−0.21	−0.48	−0.36	−0.96	−0.96	−1.20	−1.60	−1.37	−1.09
Infrastructure collapse	−0.36	−1.43	−0.43	−0.51	−0.51	−1.28	−1.19	−1.17	−1.02
Pandemic	−0.32	−0.47	−0.32	−1.14	−0.99	−1.06	−0.99	−0.97	−0.97
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.63	−0.30	−0.88	−0.79	−1.09	−1.32	−0.79	−0.90
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.21	−0.81	·	−0.59	−1.27	−0.51	−1.01	−1.30
AI diffusion shock	−0.33	−0.41	−0.31	−1.08	−0.81	−1.12	−0.95	−0.52	−0.46
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.18	−0.30	−0.88	−0.39	−0.99	−0.53	−0.39	−0.39
Food and water shock	−0.06	−0.62	−0.25	−0.79	−0.76	−0.81	−0.38	−0.65	−0.74
Legitimacy crisis	−0.17	·	−0.62	−0.37	−0.87	−1.22	−1.00	·	·
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.23	−0.27	−0.22	·	−0.64	−0.62	−0.64	−0.63	−0.94
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.29	−0.27	−0.29	−0.42	·	−0.86	·	−0.87	−0.87
Mass displacement	·	−0.27	−0.18	−0.54	−0.44	−0.61	−0.26	−0.03	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.07	−0.36	−0.32	·	−0.40	−0.37	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Cabo Verde is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.2

Emerging-market breakout S20+12.9

Yield revolution S22+4.3

Middle East settlement S21+2.4

Great-power détente S18+1.4

100-day pandemic defence S24+0.7

Energy abundance S16−1.1

Digital state leapfrog S23−1.3

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−6.5

Superintelligence takeoff S15−28.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.2	16.2	3.0	38	20	Financial Regulation & Integrity 6.3 · Foundational
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+12.9	16.9	4.0	25	59	Industrial & Sectoral Base 3.5 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+4.3	8.0	3.7	15	63	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+2.4	14.1	11.7	26	122	Energy Infrastructure 4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+1.4	8.0	6.5	20	102	Export Capability & Sophistication 3.3 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	+0.7	10.2	9.5	16	141	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−1.1	12.6	13.6	14	135	Energy Technologies 0.8 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−1.3	15.0	16.3	20	82	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.2 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−6.5	12.3	18.8	18	113	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−28.1	5.9	34.0	12	153	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception