Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years8.1rank 165 of 197 · 3 years: 8.1
Worst case−6.2%AI diffusion shock · tail −5.9%
Opportunity · 10 years+6.8rank 56 of 197 · 3 years: +8.1
Best case+23100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 3 of 10
Shock absorbed40%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.42expected index points from best practice
Breadth3 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; industry as a share of gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Indonesia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
AI diffusion shock S13−0.62
Disaster in the core S10−0.58
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.58
Pandemic S14−0.57
Global financial crisis S03−0.42
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.41
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.41
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.36
Energy supply shock S09−0.36
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.34
Chokepoint closure S05−0.29
Hybrid campaign S06−0.24
Food and water shock S11−0.24
Mass displacement S08−0.11
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.68 | −0.62 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.92 | −0.58 | −1.00 | −0.44 | ▼ 1 | 15 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 8 · Foundational |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.62 | −0.58 | −0.90 | −0.39 | 0 | 18 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 4.2 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.60 | −0.57 | −0.93 | −0.41 | ▲ 1 | 16 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 7.5 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.50 | −0.42 | −0.75 | −0.33 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Labour & Employment 8.2 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.41 | −0.72 | −0.32 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.4 · Inception |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.74 | −0.41 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.1 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.43 | −0.36 | −0.62 | −0.27 | 0 | 11 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.46 | −0.36 | −0.60 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 12 | Energy Technologies 6 · Nascent |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.55 | −0.34 | −0.56 | −0.25 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 8.7 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.43 | −0.29 | −0.51 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 7 | Energy Infrastructure 8.9 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.34 | −0.24 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 5.1 · Nascent |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.32 | −0.24 | −0.42 | −0.19 | ▼ 1 | 7 | Population Health 8.1 · Foundational |
| Mass displacement S08 | Low 0.21 | −0.11 | −0.19 | −0.08 | ▲ 2 | 5 | Labour & Employment 8.9 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| AI diffusion shock | −0.81 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.90 | −0.67 | −0.93 | −0.79 | −0.43 | −0.39 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.20 | −0.36 | −0.89 | −0.40 | −1.00 | −0.54 | −0.40 | −0.40 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.72 | −0.85 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.70 | −0.69 | −0.60 |
| Pandemic | −0.61 | −0.30 | −0.25 | −0.74 | −0.65 | −0.69 | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.63 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.19 | −0.42 | −0.42 | −0.53 | −0.71 | −0.61 | −0.49 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.53 | −0.22 | −0.20 | · | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.51 | −0.50 | −0.76 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.80 | −0.21 | −0.28 | −0.34 | · | −0.69 | · | −0.70 | −0.70 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.30 | −0.17 | −0.42 | −0.38 | −0.52 | −0.63 | −0.38 | −0.43 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.08 | −0.50 | −0.19 | −0.21 | −0.21 | −0.47 | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.47 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.25 | · | −0.51 | −0.25 | −0.59 | −0.82 | −0.67 | · | · |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.47 | −0.40 | · | −0.21 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.36 | −0.47 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.18 | −0.39 | −0.42 | · | −0.43 | −0.40 | · | −0.16 | −0.16 |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.32 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.11 | −0.08 | −0.22 | −0.18 | −0.25 | −0.11 | −0.01 | · |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Indonesia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
100-day pandemic defence S24+22.7
Emerging-market breakout S20+17.1
Digital state leapfrog S23+13.6
Great-power détente S18+8.3
Sovereign debt reset S19+7.7
Yield revolution S22+7.1
Biomedical breakthroughs S17+4.0
Superintelligence takeoff S15−1.0
Middle East settlement S21−5.9
Energy abundance S16−25.8
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +22.7 | 25.1 | 2.3 | 46 | 55 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +17.1 | 29.5 | 12.5 | 50 | 34 | Technical & Vocational Skills 9 · Transitional |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +13.6 | 23.1 | 9.6 | 42 | 13 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 6.4 · Foundational |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +8.3 | 24.8 | 16.5 | 56 | 64 | Export Capability & Sophistication 10.7 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +7.7 | 9.7 | 2.0 | 53 | 49 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 10 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +7.1 | 16.1 | 9.0 | 48 | 42 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | +4.0 | 25.5 | 21.5 | 46 | 65 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 8.6 · Foundational |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −1.0 | 21.4 | 22.4 | 31 | 48 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 3.3 · Nascent |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Mixed | −5.9 | 17.7 | 23.6 | 53 | 160 | Energy Infrastructure 9.6 · Transitional |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −25.8 | 15.4 | 41.2 | 43 | 165 | Energy Technologies 6.8 · Foundational |