Serbia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years12.4rank 131 of 197 · 3 years: 12.9

Worst case−8.6%Pandemic · tail −8.4%

Opportunity · 10 years+6.1rank 58 of 197 · 3 years: +6.3

Best case+30Energy abundance · gainer in 3 of 10

Shock absorbed35%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.73expected index points from best practice

Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; internet users as a share of population; share of population aged 65 and over; youth unemployment rate; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Serbia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Pandemic S14−0.77

Energy supply shock S09−0.75

Global financial crisis S03−0.74

AI diffusion shock S13−0.69

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.64

Chokepoint closure S05−0.62

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.47

Hybrid campaign S06−0.39

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.38

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.36

Disaster in the core S10−0.29

Mass displacement S08−0.24

Food and water shock S11−0.12

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Pandemic S14	High 0.78	−0.77	−1.22	−0.53	▼ 1	26	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5.3 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.86	−0.75	−1.11	−0.49	▼ 1	24	Energy Technologies 2.3 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.79	−0.74	−1.17	−0.51	▼ 2	26	Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 7.8 · Foundational
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.79	−0.69	−1.08	−0.47	0	26	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.3 · Inception
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.66	−0.64	−0.96	−0.42	▲ 1	22	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 3.5 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.74	−0.62	−0.87	−0.39	▼ 2	18	Maritime Power 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.59	−0.56	−0.83	−0.36	0	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.6 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.74	−0.47	−0.75	−0.33	0	21	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.53	−0.39	−0.58	−0.26	0	13	Maritime Power 0.2 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.41	−0.38	−0.60	−0.26	0	15	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.55	−0.36	−0.57	−0.25	▼ 1	11	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 7 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.47	−0.29	−0.51	−0.22	▲ 2	15	Energy Infrastructure 8.3 · Foundational
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.48	−0.24	−0.42	−0.18	0	9	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 9.5 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.14	−0.12	−0.19	−0.08	▲ 2	10	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Pandemic	−0.82	−0.41	−0.34	−1.00	−0.87	−0.93	−0.87	−0.85	−0.85
Energy supply shock	−0.17	−1.04	−0.39	−0.43	−0.43	−0.97	−1.16	−1.11	−0.99
Global financial crisis	−0.37	−0.37	−0.33	−0.74	−0.74	−0.93	−1.24	−1.06	−0.85
AI diffusion shock	−0.91	−0.38	−0.34	−1.01	−0.76	−1.04	−0.88	−0.49	−0.43
Infrastructure collapse	−0.80	−0.93	−0.33	−0.33	−0.33	−0.83	−0.77	−0.76	−0.66
Chokepoint closure	−0.08	−1.02	−0.83	·	−0.46	−0.98	−0.39	−0.78	−1.01
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.71	−0.30	−0.27	·	−0.69	−0.67	−0.69	−0.68	−1.02
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.91	−0.25	−0.32	−0.39	·	−0.79	·	−0.80	−0.80
Hybrid campaign	−0.29	−0.63	−0.68	·	−0.70	−0.66	·	−0.26	−0.26
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.04	−0.32	−0.18	−0.44	−0.40	−0.55	−0.67	−0.40	−0.46
Legitimacy crisis	−0.26	·	−0.52	−0.26	−0.61	−0.85	−0.70	·	·
Disaster in the core	−0.02	−0.60	−0.18	−0.45	−0.20	−0.50	−0.27	−0.20	−0.20
Mass displacement	·	−0.24	−0.18	−0.50	−0.41	−0.56	−0.24	−0.03	·
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.13	−0.06	−0.16	−0.15	−0.17	−0.08	−0.13	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Serbia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+30.4

100-day pandemic defence S24+28.4

Middle East settlement S21+23.9

Great-power détente S18+9.3

Digital state leapfrog S23+1.3

Emerging-market breakout S20−1.2

Yield revolution S22−2.4

Sovereign debt reset S19−2.9

Superintelligence takeoff S15−7.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17−9.0

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+30.4	30.7	0.3	34	34	Energy Technologies 4 · Nascent
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+28.4	30.7	2.3	43	46	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+23.9	25.2	1.3	45	41	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+9.3	23.8	14.5	45	61	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8.3 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+1.3	10.9	9.5	39	68	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 5.4 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	−1.2	12.4	13.6	49	161	Trade Facilitation & Logistics 9 · Transitional
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−2.4	7.6	10.0	42	115	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−2.9	6.0	8.9	51	172	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 9.5 · Transitional
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Mixed	−7.9	20.1	28.0	30	58	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.8 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	−9.0	25.7	34.7	44	122	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6.8 · Foundational