Norway · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years4.9rank 185 of 197 · 3 years: 5.3

Worst case−3.7%Infrastructure collapse · tail −3.5%

Opportunity · 10 years+16.5rank 29 of 197 · 3 years: +17.6

Best case+51100-day pandemic defence · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed58%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.07expected index points from best practice

Breadth9 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkEnergy Infrastructureweakest point in 5 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Hybrid campaign, AI diffusion shock, Single-supplier cut-off. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; land border with russia or belarus; internet users as a share of population; industry as a share of gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; urban share of population; share of population aged 65 and over.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Norway’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.54

Pandemic S14−0.54

AI diffusion shock S13−0.46

Hybrid campaign S06−0.44

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.35

Global financial crisis S03−0.34

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.30

Energy supply shock S09−0.22

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.18

Mass displacement S08−0.18

Disaster in the core S10−0.17

Chokepoint closure S05−0.16

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.15

Food and water shock S11−0.06

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.80	−0.54	−1.16	−0.48	0	15	Energy Infrastructure 10.9 · Transitional
Pandemic S14	High 0.81	−0.54	−1.26	−0.49	0	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 11 · Transitional
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.80	−0.46	−1.10	−0.43	0	12	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	High 0.90	−0.44	−0.99	−0.42	▼ 1	11	Energy Infrastructure 10.8 · Transitional
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.82	−0.35	−0.83	−0.33	▼ 1	11	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 4.8 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.59	−0.34	−0.88	−0.34	0	9	Economic Output & Productivity 12.8 · Established
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.49	−0.30	−0.70	−0.29	0	9	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.2 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.38	−0.22	−0.50	−0.20	▲ 1	8	Energy Technologies 9.9 · Transitional
Legitimacy crisis S07	Medium 0.46	−0.18	−0.47	−0.18	0	4	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 12.5 · Established
Mass displacement S08	Medium 0.55	−0.18	−0.49	−0.18	0	6	Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.42	−0.17	−0.46	−0.17	0	7	Energy Infrastructure 11.5 · Transitional
Chokepoint closure S05	Low 0.31	−0.16	−0.36	−0.15	▲ 1	6	Energy Infrastructure 11.6 · Transitional
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Low 0.26	−0.15	−0.38	−0.15	0	5	Energy Infrastructure 11.7 · Transitional
Food and water shock S11	Low 0.12	−0.06	−0.16	−0.06	0	5	Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14.6 · Established

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−0.68	−0.79	−0.28	−0.28	−0.28	−0.71	−0.66	−0.65	−0.56
Pandemic	−0.58	−0.29	−0.24	−0.70	−0.61	−0.66	−0.61	−0.60	−0.60
AI diffusion shock	−0.60	−0.25	−0.23	−0.67	−0.50	−0.69	−0.59	−0.32	−0.29
Hybrid campaign	−0.33	−0.72	−0.78	·	−0.80	−0.75	·	−0.30	−0.30
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.68	−0.18	−0.23	−0.29	·	−0.58	·	−0.59	−0.59
Global financial crisis	−0.17	−0.17	−0.15	−0.34	−0.34	−0.42	−0.56	−0.48	−0.39
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.38	−0.16	−0.14	·	−0.37	−0.35	−0.37	−0.36	−0.54
Energy supply shock	−0.05	−0.31	−0.12	−0.13	−0.13	−0.29	−0.35	−0.34	−0.30
Legitimacy crisis	−0.13	·	−0.27	−0.13	−0.31	−0.43	−0.36	·	·
Mass displacement	·	−0.18	−0.13	−0.37	−0.30	−0.41	−0.17	−0.02	·
Disaster in the core	−0.01	−0.34	−0.10	−0.25	−0.11	−0.29	−0.15	−0.11	−0.11
Chokepoint closure	−0.02	−0.27	−0.23	·	−0.12	−0.26	−0.10	−0.20	−0.26
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.02	−0.12	−0.07	−0.17	−0.15	−0.21	−0.25	−0.15	−0.17
Food and water shock	−0.01	−0.07	−0.03	−0.09	−0.09	−0.09	−0.04	−0.07	−0.08

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Norway is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

100-day pandemic defence S24+50.9

Great-power détente S18+28.1

Superintelligence takeoff S15+28.0

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+20.5

Middle East settlement S21+10.0

Digital state leapfrog S23+9.7

Emerging-market breakout S20+1.2

Yield revolution S22−0.3

Energy abundance S16−1.9

Sovereign debt reset S19−2.0

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+50.9	52.0	1.0	69	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Gainer	+28.1	33.7	5.6	72	18	Export Capability & Sophistication 13.7 · Established
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Gainer	+28.0	35.8	7.8	50	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 5.8 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+20.5	31.5	11.0	70	12	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+10.0	20.8	10.8	70	80	Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+9.7	12.5	2.8	71	26	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 12.2 · Established
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Mixed	+1.2	13.5	12.3	69	146	Energy Infrastructure 12 · Established
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	−0.3	4.9	5.1	68	102	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12 · Established
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	−1.9	18.7	20.6	62	139	Energy Technologies 10.4 · Transitional
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	−2.0	0.7	2.7	83	163	Financial Regulation & Integrity 16.3 · Advanced