Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: no coastline; internet users as a share of population; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; share of population aged 65 and over; few months of imports covered by reserves; public debt relative to gdp; trade in goods and services relative to gdp.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Austria’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.90 | −0.63 | −1.15 | −0.49 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Energy Technologies 6.5 · Foundational |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.81 | −0.59 | −1.25 | −0.53 | 0 | 22 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 9.2 · Transitional |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.78 | −0.58 | −0.90 | −0.39 | ▼ 1 | 23 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.70 | −0.56 | −1.01 | −0.44 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 6.2 · Foundational |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.82 | −0.55 | −1.22 | −0.53 | ▼ 1 | 17 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 13.1 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.85 | −0.54 | −1.16 | −0.49 | ▲ 1 | 20 | Artificial Intelligence 8.8 · Foundational |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 0.65 | −0.45 | −0.91 | −0.40 | 0 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 10.2 · Transitional |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.60 | −0.39 | −0.86 | −0.37 | 0 | 17 | Energy Infrastructure 11.1 · Transitional |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.74 | −0.37 | −0.75 | −0.33 | 0 | 14 | Resource Infrastructure 8.7 · Foundational |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.54 | −0.36 | −0.58 | −0.25 | 0 | 9 | Maritime Power 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Medium 0.50 | −0.22 | −0.54 | −0.22 | ▲ 1 | 13 | Energy Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.43 | −0.21 | −0.44 | −0.19 | 0 | 6 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 9.4 · Transitional |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.57 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.20 | 0 | 9 | Foundational Education 14.6 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.19 | −0.11 | −0.25 | −0.10 | 0 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 9 · Foundational |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy supply shock | −0.15 | −0.88 | −0.32 | −0.37 | −0.37 | −0.83 | −0.98 | −0.95 | −0.84 |
| Pandemic | −0.63 | −0.32 | −0.25 | −0.77 | −0.67 | −0.72 | −0.67 | −0.66 | −0.66 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.08 | −0.98 | −0.70 | · | −0.44 | −0.94 | −0.38 | −0.76 | −0.97 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.70 | −0.82 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.29 | −0.73 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −0.58 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.55 | −0.55 | −0.69 | −0.92 | −0.79 | −0.63 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.70 | −0.29 | −0.26 | −0.78 | −0.59 | −0.80 | −0.68 | −0.38 | −0.33 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.57 | −0.24 | −0.21 | · | −0.55 | −0.53 | −0.55 | −0.54 | −0.81 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.33 | −0.18 | −0.46 | −0.41 | −0.56 | −0.68 | −0.41 | −0.47 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.72 | −0.19 | −0.25 | −0.31 | · | −0.63 | · | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.27 | −0.60 | −0.57 | · | −0.66 | −0.62 | · | −0.25 | −0.25 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.02 | −0.45 | −0.14 | −0.34 | −0.15 | −0.38 | −0.20 | −0.15 | −0.15 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.15 | · | −0.30 | −0.15 | −0.35 | −0.49 | −0.41 | · | · |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.21 | −0.16 | −0.42 | −0.35 | −0.48 | −0.20 | −0.02 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.13 | −0.06 | −0.16 | −0.15 | −0.16 | −0.08 | −0.13 | −0.15 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Austria is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +51.3 | 51.4 | 0.1 | 54 | 15 | Energy Technologies 8 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +45.2 | 46.7 | 1.5 | 62 | 21 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 10.3 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +33.1 | 40.7 | 7.5 | 69 | 16 | Trade Facilitation & Logistics 13 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +33.0 | 33.7 | 0.7 | 58 | 20 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 10 · Transitional |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +30.1 | 41.8 | 11.7 | 59 | 16 | Artificial Intelligence 10 · Transitional |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +13.2 | 29.0 | 15.8 | 70 | 30 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 12.8 · Established |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +5.7 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 62 | 47 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 10.4 · Transitional |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Mixed | +2.6 | 11.4 | 8.7 | 66 | 139 | Energy Infrastructure 11.9 · Transitional |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +0.9 | 5.9 | 5.0 | 64 | 93 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 11.3 · Transitional |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | 0.0 | 4.3 | 4.2 | 74 | 145 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 14.3 · Established |