Jordan · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years17.1rank 105 of 197 · 3 years: 16.3

Worst case−11.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −10.3%

Opportunity · 10 years+7.4rank 55 of 197 · 3 years: +5.9

Best case+41Middle East settlement · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed31%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.94expected index points from best practice

Breadth3 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Chokepoint closure, Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; refugees hosted per head of population; youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; adult obesity rate; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Jordan’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.84

Chokepoint closure S05−0.78

Global financial crisis S03−0.70

Energy supply shock S09−0.68

Pandemic S14−0.68

AI diffusion shock S13−0.67

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.57

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.55

Mass displacement S08−0.55

Food and water shock S11−0.52

Disaster in the core S10−0.49

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48

Hybrid campaign S06−0.36

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.34

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.81	−0.84	−1.16	−0.51	0	22	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.3 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.93	−0.78	−1.10	−0.48	▼ 4	18	Maritime Power 0.8 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.69	−0.70	−1.03	−0.45	▼ 1	18	Economic Output & Productivity 5.1 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.74	−0.68	−0.95	−0.42	▼ 2	18	Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.64	−0.68	−0.98	−0.43	0	17	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.1 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.70	−0.67	−0.94	−0.42	▼ 1	18	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.58	−0.57	−0.81	−0.36	▼ 2	16	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	Medium 0.56	−0.55	−0.81	−0.35	▼ 2	14	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.8 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08	High 0.99	−0.55	−0.88	−0.38	▼ 4	15	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 5.1 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	High 0.61	−0.52	−0.80	−0.35	▼ 1	11	Resource Infrastructure 6.1 · Foundational
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.71	−0.49	−0.78	−0.34	▼ 2	14	Energy Infrastructure 6.7 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.65	−0.48	−0.67	−0.29	▼ 1	14	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 5.6 · Nascent
Hybrid campaign S06	Medium 0.48	−0.36	−0.53	−0.23	0	10	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.48	−0.34	−0.47	−0.21	▲ 1	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−1.01	−1.22	−0.44	−0.44	−0.44	−1.09	−1.02	−1.00	−0.87
Chokepoint closure	−0.10	−1.28	−1.08	·	−0.57	−1.23	−0.49	−0.98	−1.26
Global financial crisis	−0.35	−0.35	−0.32	−0.70	−0.70	−0.88	−1.17	−1.01	−0.80
Energy supply shock	−0.16	−0.95	−0.36	−0.40	−0.40	−0.89	−1.06	−1.02	−0.91
Pandemic	−0.71	−0.36	−0.30	−0.88	−0.77	−0.83	−0.77	−0.76	−0.76
AI diffusion shock	−0.80	−0.37	−0.34	−1.00	−0.75	−1.03	−0.87	−0.48	−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.66	−0.31	−0.28	·	−0.71	−0.69	−0.71	−0.70	−1.05
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.06	−0.46	−0.26	−0.64	−0.58	−0.79	−0.96	−0.58	−0.66
Mass displacement	·	−0.56	−0.42	−1.14	−0.93	−1.28	−0.54	−0.07	·
Food and water shock	−0.06	−0.59	−0.27	−0.72	−0.69	−0.74	−0.34	−0.59	−0.68
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−1.01	−0.30	−0.74	−0.34	−0.84	−0.45	−0.34	−0.34
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.71	−0.35	−0.82	−1.15	−0.94	·	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.27	−0.58	−0.63	·	−0.64	−0.60	·	−0.24	−0.24
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.61	−0.18	−0.23	−0.28	·	−0.57	·	−0.58	−0.58

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Jordan is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Middle East settlement S21+41.0

Energy abundance S16+22.1

Emerging-market breakout S20+18.8

100-day pandemic defence S24+15.1

Yield revolution S22+10.0

Great-power détente S18+9.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+8.3

Sovereign debt reset S19+7.8

Digital state leapfrog S23+0.7

Superintelligence takeoff S15−20.4

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+41.0	43.9	2.9	44	8	Energy Infrastructure 8 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Gainer	+22.1	23.8	1.8	28	48	Energy Technologies 3.6 · Nascent
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+18.8	24.7	5.9	41	26	Technical & Vocational Skills 7.5 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+15.1	20.4	5.3	32	71	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Mixed	+10.0	13.0	3.1	32	30	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+9.9	20.8	10.9	39	57	Export Capability & Sophistication 7 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+8.3	19.6	11.3	33	50	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.4 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Mixed	+7.8	13.1	5.3	42	43	Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 7.7 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+0.7	18.4	17.7	31	70	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.8 · Nascent
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−20.4	12.0	32.4	19	100	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.5 · Inception