Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Insulated over 10 years: lower vulnerability, lower opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years13.9rank 124 of 197 · 3 years: 12.9
Worst case−13.0%Infrastructure collapse · tail −11.7%
Opportunity · 10 years−6.7rank 135 of 197 · 3 years: −4.9
Best case+11Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed27%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.74expected index points from best practice
Breadth6 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: oil, gas and coal among the top five exports of a net exporter; earthquake, storm, flood, drought and volcanic hazards named for the nation; few months of imports covered by reserves; internet users as a share of population.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Ecuador’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.88
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.75
Pandemic S14−0.75
Global financial crisis S03−0.64
AI diffusion shock S13−0.64
Disaster in the core S10−0.63
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.45
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.37
Mass displacement S08−0.25
Food and water shock S11−0.25
Energy supply shock S09−0.23
Hybrid campaign S06−0.20
Chokepoint closure S05−0.13
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.81 | −0.88 | −1.14 | −0.51 | ▼ 2 | 23 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.68 | −0.75 | −0.98 | −0.43 | ▼ 4 | 26 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.2 · Nascent |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.67 | −0.75 | −1.02 | −0.45 | ▼ 1 | 25 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.3 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | Medium 0.57 | −0.64 | −0.84 | −0.37 | ▼ 1 | 19 | Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 5 · Nascent |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.64 | −0.64 | −0.86 | −0.38 | 0 | 24 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.88 | −0.63 | −0.96 | −0.42 | ▼ 5 | 21 | Energy Infrastructure 5.8 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.51 | −0.52 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 17 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.64 | −0.45 | −0.65 | −0.29 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Monetary & Currency Capability 3.7 · Nascent |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.53 | −0.37 | −0.52 | −0.23 | ▲ 1 | 14 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.43 | −0.25 | −0.38 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 8 | Internal Security & Order 6.5 · Foundational |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.28 | −0.25 | −0.37 | −0.16 | ▲ 5 | 7 | Internal Security & Order 6.8 · Foundational |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Low 0.24 | −0.23 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 6 | 11 | Energy Technologies 1.7 · Inception |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.24 | −0.20 | −0.26 | −0.11 | ▲ 1 | 11 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Low 0.16 | −0.13 | −0.19 | −0.08 | ▲ 5 | 7 | Joint Command, Projection & Sustainment 5.2 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.03 | −1.29 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −0.46 | −1.15 | −1.07 | −1.05 | −0.92 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.08 | −0.62 | −0.35 | −0.86 | −0.78 | −1.07 | −1.30 | −0.78 | −0.89 |
| Pandemic | −0.78 | −0.40 | −0.33 | −0.98 | −0.85 | −0.91 | −0.85 | −0.84 | −0.84 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.32 | −0.32 | −0.29 | −0.64 | −0.64 | −0.80 | −1.07 | −0.91 | −0.73 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.75 | −0.35 | −0.32 | −0.94 | −0.71 | −0.97 | −0.83 | −0.45 | −0.40 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.04 | −1.30 | −0.39 | −0.97 | −0.43 | −1.09 | −0.58 | −0.43 | −0.43 |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.62 | −0.28 | −0.25 | · | −0.65 | −0.63 | −0.65 | −0.64 | −0.96 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.33 | · | −0.67 | −0.33 | −0.78 | −1.08 | −0.89 | · | · |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.67 | −0.20 | −0.25 | −0.31 | · | −0.63 | · | −0.64 | −0.64 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.25 | −0.19 | −0.52 | −0.42 | −0.58 | −0.25 | −0.03 | · |
| Food and water shock | −0.03 | −0.28 | −0.13 | −0.34 | −0.33 | −0.35 | −0.16 | −0.28 | −0.32 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.05 | −0.32 | −0.12 | −0.13 | −0.13 | −0.30 | −0.35 | −0.34 | −0.30 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.32 | −0.35 | · | −0.36 | −0.34 | · | −0.13 | −0.13 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.02 | −0.22 | −0.19 | · | −0.10 | −0.21 | −0.09 | −0.17 | −0.22 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Ecuador is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Emerging-market breakout S20+11.3
100-day pandemic defence S24+10.8
Sovereign debt reset S19+9.9
Digital state leapfrog S23+1.4
Great-power détente S18+0.4
Yield revolution S22−8.9
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−10.4
Superintelligence takeoff S15−17.7
Middle East settlement S21−33.0
Energy abundance S16−54.1
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.3 | 21.7 | 10.4 | 37 | 70 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +10.8 | 16.6 | 5.8 | 29 | 86 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +9.9 | 12.8 | 2.9 | 41 | 32 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +1.4 | 15.6 | 14.1 | 25 | 67 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.4 · Inception |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +0.4 | 17.9 | 17.5 | 36 | 109 | Investment Attraction & Projection 6.3 · Foundational |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | −8.9 | 10.3 | 19.3 | 30 | 142 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Loser | −10.4 | 16.2 | 26.6 | 30 | 130 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.8 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Loser | −17.7 | 9.1 | 26.9 | 18 | 87 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Loser | −33.0 | 4.7 | 37.7 | 39 | 182 | Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Loser | −54.1 | 4.4 | 58.5 | 24 | 180 | Energy Technologies 2.2 · Inception |