Tunisia · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years15.7rank 111 of 197 · 3 years: 15.5

Worst case−11.0%Infrastructure collapse · tail −10.2%

Opportunity · 10 years+7.9rank 51 of 197 · 3 years: +7.2

Best case+20Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 5 of 10

Shock absorbed31%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.89expected index points from best practice

Breadth13 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Legitimacy crisis, Global financial crisis, Energy supply shock. Highest exposure indicators: youth unemployment rate; little renewable water per head; adult obesity rate; consumer price inflation.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Tunisia’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.85

Pandemic S14−0.77

Global financial crisis S03−0.73

Energy supply shock S09−0.71

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.70

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.61

AI diffusion shock S13−0.60

Disaster in the core S10−0.54

Chokepoint closure S05−0.52

Food and water shock S11−0.48

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.46

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.38

Mass displacement S08−0.34

Hybrid campaign S06−0.22

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.81	−0.85	−1.17	−0.51	▲ 1	24	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.6 · Inception
Pandemic S14	High 0.72	−0.77	−1.12	−0.49	0	18	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 4.5 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03	High 0.68	−0.73	−1.02	−0.45	▼ 1	19	Financial Stability & Crisis Management 5.9 · Nascent
Energy supply shock S09	High 0.76	−0.71	−0.98	−0.43	▼ 3	20	Energy Technologies 1.5 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.67	−0.70	−0.97	−0.42	▼ 3	19	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.9 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.86	−0.61	−0.87	−0.38	▼ 1	14	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.9 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	High 0.64	−0.60	−0.88	−0.39	▲ 1	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.9 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	High 0.79	−0.54	−0.86	−0.38	▼ 2	17	Energy Infrastructure 5.6 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05	High 0.61	−0.52	−0.72	−0.32	0	17	Maritime Power 3.9 · Nascent
Food and water shock S11	Medium 0.58	−0.48	−0.76	−0.33	▼ 1	14	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.9 · Foundational
Single-supplier cut-off S02	High 0.68	−0.46	−0.68	−0.30	0	19	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Medium 0.38	−0.38	−0.53	−0.23	▲ 1	13	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 1.4 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.61	−0.34	−0.54	−0.24	0	9	Political Institutions & Civic Participation 6.8 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.28	−0.22	−0.31	−0.13	0	7	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 2.1 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Infrastructure collapse	−1.06	−1.24	−0.44	−0.44	−0.44	−1.11	−1.03	−1.01	−0.89
Pandemic	−0.82	−0.41	−0.34	−1.00	−0.87	−0.93	−0.87	−0.85	−0.85
Global financial crisis	−0.37	−0.37	−0.33	−0.74	−0.74	−0.92	−1.23	−1.05	−0.84
Energy supply shock	−0.17	−0.99	−0.37	−0.41	−0.41	−0.93	−1.10	−1.06	−0.94
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.07	−0.59	−0.33	−0.81	−0.73	−1.01	−1.22	−0.73	−0.84
Legitimacy crisis	−0.45	·	−0.89	−0.45	−1.04	−1.45	−1.19	·	·
AI diffusion shock	−0.79	−0.33	−0.30	−0.88	−0.66	−0.90	−0.77	−0.42	−0.38
Disaster in the core	−0.04	−1.12	−0.34	−0.83	−0.37	−0.93	−0.50	−0.37	−0.37
Chokepoint closure	−0.07	−0.85	−0.72	·	−0.38	−0.81	−0.33	−0.65	−0.84
Food and water shock	−0.05	−0.55	−0.25	−0.67	−0.64	−0.68	−0.32	−0.55	−0.62
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.89	−0.24	−0.31	−0.38	·	−0.77	·	−0.78	−0.78
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.48	−0.20	−0.18	·	−0.47	−0.45	−0.47	−0.46	−0.68
Mass displacement	·	−0.35	−0.26	−0.71	−0.58	−0.80	−0.34	−0.04	·
Hybrid campaign	−0.17	−0.36	−0.39	·	−0.40	−0.38	·	−0.15	−0.15

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Tunisia is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+19.6

100-day pandemic defence S24+16.8

Yield revolution S22+16.6

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.1

Middle East settlement S21+10.4

Energy abundance S16+9.8

Great-power détente S18+9.6

Digital state leapfrog S23+6.9

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+3.2

Superintelligence takeoff S15−18.1

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+19.6	26.8	7.1	42	25	Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Gainer	+16.8	24.8	8.0	38	65	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+16.6	19.4	2.8	39	13	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.1	15.9	2.8	42	21	Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 7.5 · Foundational
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Gainer	+10.4	20.0	9.6	40	78	Energy Infrastructure 7.1 · Foundational
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+9.8	20.3	10.5	29	90	Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+9.6	14.9	5.3	42	59	Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 8 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	+6.9	23.8	16.9	33	41	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 4.2 · Nascent
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Mixed	+3.2	26.9	23.7	39	69	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 6 · Foundational
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−18.1	12.5	30.6	25	89	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 2.2 · Inception