Côte d'Ivoire · Results · Macro Scenarios

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Climbers. Moderate vulnerability, and the most to gain from catch-up. One of 34 nations with a similar pattern of results.

High stakes over 10 years: higher vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years19.0rank 96 of 197 · 3 years: 18.5

Worst case−13.7%Sovereign funding crisis · tail −12.9%

Opportunity · 10 years+1.5rank 79 of 197 · 3 years: 0.0

Best case+19Emerging-market breakout · gainer in 4 of 10

Shock absorbed23%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios

Policy dividend+0.86expected index points from best practice

Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band

Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 2 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: land borders with states in conflict or collapse; low life expectancy at birth; share of population aged under 15.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Côte d'Ivoire’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.74

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.74

Food and water shock S11−0.61

Pandemic S14−0.61

Energy supply shock S09−0.60

Global financial crisis S03−0.58

AI diffusion shock S13−0.56

Mass displacement S08−0.55

Legitimacy crisis S07−0.51

Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.42

Chokepoint closure S05−0.40

Disaster in the core S10−0.40

Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.28

Hybrid campaign S06−0.25

Scenario	Exposure	Change	No response	Best practice	Rank shift	Bands lost	Weakest point
Sovereign funding crisis S04	High 0.70	−0.74	−1.00	−0.44	▼ 1	20	Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 3.5 · Nascent
Infrastructure collapse S12	High 0.66	−0.74	−0.91	−0.41	0	19	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11	High 0.63	−0.61	−0.83	−0.36	▼ 5	18	Population Health 3.6 · Nascent
Pandemic S14	Medium 0.50	−0.61	−0.77	−0.34	▲ 2	15	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 1 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09	Medium 0.60	−0.60	−0.77	−0.34	▲ 1	16	Energy Technologies 0 · Inception
Global financial crisis S03	Medium 0.53	−0.58	−0.79	−0.35	▲ 2	18	Labour & Employment 4.3 · Nascent
AI diffusion shock S13	Medium 0.52	−0.56	−0.69	−0.31	0	10	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Mass displacement S08	High 0.84	−0.55	−0.74	−0.32	▼ 5	13	Health System Capability 4.5 · Nascent
Legitimacy crisis S07	High 0.67	−0.51	−0.67	−0.30	0	11	Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.5 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02	Medium 0.57	−0.42	−0.54	−0.25	▲ 1	13	Advanced Materials & Manufacturing 0 · Inception
Chokepoint closure S05	Medium 0.43	−0.40	−0.52	−0.23	▲ 1	14	Maritime Power 1.7 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10	Medium 0.51	−0.40	−0.55	−0.24	▲ 2	10	Energy Infrastructure 4.9 · Nascent
Geoeconomic confrontation S01	Low 0.26	−0.28	−0.37	−0.16	▲ 5	6	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Hybrid campaign S06	Low 0.28	−0.25	−0.31	−0.14	0	8	Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.5 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

Scenario	CT	SI	NS	HC	II	GI	FS	PI	TI
Sovereign funding crisis	−0.08	−0.62	−0.35	−0.86	−0.77	−1.06	−1.29	−0.77	−0.88
Infrastructure collapse	−0.73	−1.12	−0.40	−0.40	−0.40	−1.00	−0.93	−0.91	−0.80
Food and water shock	−0.07	−0.69	−0.31	−0.84	−0.81	−0.86	−0.40	−0.69	−0.79
Pandemic	−0.57	−0.33	−0.27	−0.79	−0.69	−0.74	−0.69	−0.68	−0.68
Energy supply shock	−0.14	−0.83	−0.31	−0.35	−0.35	−0.78	−0.93	−0.89	−0.80
Global financial crisis	−0.29	−0.29	−0.27	−0.59	−0.59	−0.74	−0.98	−0.84	−0.67
AI diffusion shock	−0.59	−0.31	−0.28	−0.84	−0.63	−0.87	−0.73	−0.40	−0.36
Mass displacement	·	−0.56	−0.42	−1.13	−0.93	−1.27	−0.54	−0.07	·
Legitimacy crisis	−0.35	·	−0.75	−0.38	−0.88	−1.22	−1.00	·	·
Single-supplier cut-off	−0.66	−0.23	−0.29	−0.36	·	−0.73	·	−0.74	−0.74
Chokepoint closure	−0.05	−0.65	−0.55	·	−0.29	−0.63	−0.25	−0.50	−0.65
Disaster in the core	−0.03	−0.84	−0.25	−0.62	−0.28	−0.70	−0.37	−0.28	−0.28
Geoeconomic confrontation	−0.33	−0.15	−0.14	·	−0.35	−0.34	−0.35	−0.34	−0.52
Hybrid campaign	−0.19	−0.41	−0.44	·	−0.45	−0.42	·	−0.17	−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Côte d'Ivoire is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Emerging-market breakout S20+18.7

Sovereign debt reset S19+13.1

Biomedical breakthroughs S17+11.3

Yield revolution S22+10.3

Middle East settlement S21+7.1

Great-power détente S18+2.4

Energy abundance S16+1.7

100-day pandemic defence S24−1.7

Digital state leapfrog S23−2.8

Superintelligence takeoff S15−17.9

Scenario	Position	Net	Capture	Loss	Readiness	Rank	Binding capability
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗	Gainer	+18.7	24.4	5.6	31	29	Technical & Vocational Skills 5.5 · Nascent
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗	Gainer	+13.1	16.2	3.0	34	23	Health System Capability 6.3 · Foundational
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗	Gainer	+11.3	16.0	4.7	19	34	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗	Gainer	+10.3	13.6	3.3	21	29	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗	Mixed	+7.1	15.7	8.6	33	95	Energy Infrastructure 6 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗	Mixed	+2.4	8.7	6.2	32	92	Export Capability & Sophistication 5.7 · Nascent
Energy abundance S16 ↗	Mixed	+1.7	9.4	7.8	18	127	Energy Technologies 1.4 · Inception
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗	Mixed	−1.7	8.4	10.2	19	155	Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.2 · Inception
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗	Mixed	−2.8	17.2	20.0	20	94	Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 1.8 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗	Loser	−17.9	5.4	23.4	14	88	Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.3 · Inception