Scenarios 2027 / Results / Nations

Latin America and Caribbean · DOM

Dominican Republic

Baseline index 6.82Rank 84 of 197FoundationalLatin America and CaribbeanAtlas profile

Read with care Second illustrative run, with exposure set nation by nation. The capability scores are candidate ratings and the test settings are GINC desk settings; neither has been adopted. Scores are from the GINC National Capability Index 2026, which describes them as candidate ratings. Exposure is set nation by nation from the CIA World Factbook 2025 and the scenario's regional exposure. Results show the method working on real scores; they are not findings about any nation. How the tests work.

Vulnerability and opportunity

Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.

Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.

Vulnerability · 10 years16.9rank 106 of 197 · 3 years: 16.3
Worst case−14.1%Infrastructure collapse · tail −12.5%
Opportunity · 10 years+0.9rank 81 of 197 · 3 years: +1.7
Best case+19Energy abundance · gainer in 2 of 10
Shock absorbed28%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.89expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios

Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Geoeconomic confrontation. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; share of exports going to china and the united states; internet users as a share of population; urban share of population; adult obesity rate; remittances relative to gdp.

Downside scenarios: load test

Change in Dominican Republic’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.

Infrastructure collapse S12−0.96
Energy supply shock S09−0.82
Pandemic S14−0.78
AI diffusion shock S13−0.66
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.56
Disaster in the core S10−0.56
Chokepoint closure S05−0.54
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.53
Global financial crisis S03−0.52
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.48
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.38
Food and water shock S11−0.34
Mass displacement S08−0.31
Hybrid campaign S06−0.26
ScenarioExposureChangeNo responseBest practiceRank shiftBands lostWeakest point
Infrastructure collapse S12High 0.90−0.96−1.25−0.56▼ 526Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception
Energy supply shock S09High 0.85−0.82−1.09−0.48▼ 320Energy Technologies 0.1 · Inception
Pandemic S14High 0.70−0.78−1.07−0.47▼ 220Biotechnology & Health Technologies 0.9 · Inception
AI diffusion shock S13High 0.67−0.66−0.90−0.40▼ 119Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Geoeconomic confrontation S01Medium 0.56−0.56−0.77−0.34▼ 116Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Disaster in the core S10High 0.79−0.56−0.86−0.38▼ 417Energy Infrastructure 5.3 · Nascent
Chokepoint closure S05High 0.60−0.54−0.71−0.31▼ 317Maritime Power 2.1 · Inception
Sovereign funding crisis S04Medium 0.54−0.53−0.78−0.34017Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 5.1 · Nascent
Global financial crisis S03Medium 0.52−0.52−0.77−0.34015Business Dynamism & Entrepreneurship 6.5 · Foundational
Legitimacy crisis S07High 0.70−0.48−0.71−0.31017Information Environment & Strategic Communication 3.9 · Nascent
Single-supplier cut-off S02Medium 0.53−0.38−0.52−0.23▲ 111Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception
Food and water shock S11Medium 0.39−0.34−0.52−0.23▲ 28Resource Infrastructure 4.7 · Nascent
Mass displacement S08Medium 0.55−0.31−0.48−0.21011Internal Security & Order 7.3 · Foundational
Hybrid campaign S06Low 0.30−0.26−0.33−0.1408Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0.7 · Inception

Where each scenario lands

Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.

ScenarioCTSINSHCIIGIFSPITI
Infrastructure collapse−0.98−1.44−0.51−0.51−0.51−1.28−1.20−1.17−1.03
Energy supply shock−0.19−1.14−0.43−0.48−0.48−1.07−1.27−1.22−1.09
Pandemic−0.77−0.42−0.34−1.02−0.89−0.95−0.89−0.87−0.87
AI diffusion shock−0.76−0.37−0.33−0.99−0.74−1.02−0.86−0.48−0.42
Geoeconomic confrontation−0.65−0.30−0.27·−0.71−0.68−0.71−0.69−1.04
Disaster in the core−0.04−1.15−0.35−0.85−0.38−0.96−0.51−0.38−0.38
Chokepoint closure−0.07−0.89−0.76·−0.40−0.86−0.34−0.69−0.88
Sovereign funding crisis−0.06−0.44−0.25−0.61−0.55−0.76−0.92−0.55−0.63
Global financial crisis−0.26−0.26−0.23−0.52−0.52−0.65−0.87−0.74−0.59
Legitimacy crisis−0.35·−0.71−0.36−0.83−1.16−0.95··
Single-supplier cut-off−0.68−0.20−0.26−0.32·−0.64·−0.65−0.65
Food and water shock−0.04−0.38−0.17−0.47−0.45−0.48−0.22−0.38−0.44
Mass displacement·−0.32−0.24−0.65−0.53−0.73−0.31−0.04·
Hybrid campaign−0.19−0.42−0.45·−0.46−0.44·−0.17−0.17

Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.

Upside scenarios: capture test

Net position in each upside scenario: what Dominican Republic is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.

Energy abundance S16+19.4
Middle East settlement S21+11.5
100-day pandemic defence S24+8.6
Emerging-market breakout S20+5.5
Sovereign debt reset S19+4.5
Great-power détente S18+4.2
Digital state leapfrog S23+0.6
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−5.9
Yield revolution S22−10.2
Superintelligence takeoff S15−16.9
ScenarioPositionNetCaptureLossReadinessRankBinding capability
Energy abundance S16 ↗Gainer+19.420.61.22357Energy Technologies 2 · Inception
Middle East settlement S21 ↗Gainer+11.517.25.73773Alliances & Security Cooperation 6.5 · Foundational
100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗Mixed+8.614.55.92493Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗Mixed+5.520.314.839117Energy Infrastructure 6.9 · Foundational
Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗Mixed+4.57.12.64384Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 8 · Foundational
Great-power détente S18 ↗Mixed+4.221.116.93884Diplomatic Statecraft & Global Networks 6.8 · Foundational
Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗Mixed+0.614.413.82772Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 2.6 · Inception
Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗Mixed−5.916.622.525109Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Yield revolution S22 ↗Loser−10.27.017.325146Biotechnology & Health Technologies 2.4 · Inception
Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗Loser−16.99.726.71885Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.8 · Inception