Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Anchors. Absorb most shocks and take most of the upside. One of 42 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Geoeconomic confrontation, Global financial crisis, AI diffusion shock. Highest exposure indicators: trade in goods and services relative to gdp; refugees hosted per head of population; public debt relative to gdp; share of population aged 65 and over; services as a share of gdp; internet users as a share of population; few months of imports covered by reserves; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in United Kingdom’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | High 1.00 | −0.55 | −1.42 | −0.55 | ▼ 2 | 12 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 12.8 · Established |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.98 | −0.51 | −1.47 | −0.51 | ▼ 1 | 13 | Labour & Employment 14 · Established |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.92 | −0.50 | −1.28 | −0.49 | 0 | 11 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 12.9 · Established |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.78 | −0.43 | −1.21 | −0.43 | 0 | 11 | Labour & Employment 14.2 · Established |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | High 0.65 | −0.35 | −0.94 | −0.35 | 0 | 9 | Internal Security & Order 15.3 · Advanced |
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | Medium 0.58 | −0.31 | −0.84 | −0.31 | 0 | 8 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.6 · Established |
| Energy supply shock S09 | Medium 0.58 | −0.30 | −0.75 | −0.30 | 0 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | High 0.66 | −0.29 | −0.67 | −0.28 | 0 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 13.2 · Established |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | High 0.62 | −0.29 | −0.74 | −0.28 | 0 | 8 | Resource Infrastructure 13.5 · Established |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Medium 0.53 | −0.20 | −0.59 | −0.20 | 0 | 6 | Internal Security & Order 15.5 · Advanced |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.60 | −0.20 | −0.53 | −0.20 | 0 | 7 | Labour & Employment 14.8 · Established |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | Medium 0.47 | −0.19 | −0.49 | −0.19 | 0 | 4 | Force Generation & Mobilisation 13.5 · Established |
| Disaster in the core S10 | Low 0.24 | −0.10 | −0.27 | −0.10 | ▲ 1 | 6 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 14.9 · Established |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.10 | −0.05 | −0.13 | −0.05 | 0 | 5 | Resource Infrastructure 14.1 · Established |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.70 | −0.29 | −0.29 | · | −0.68 | −0.66 | −0.68 | −0.67 | −1.00 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.26 | −0.51 | −0.51 | −0.64 | −0.86 | −0.73 | −0.59 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.65 | −0.27 | −0.27 | −0.72 | −0.54 | −0.74 | −0.63 | −0.35 | −0.31 |
| Pandemic | −0.46 | −0.23 | −0.21 | −0.56 | −0.49 | −0.52 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.04 | −0.29 | −0.18 | −0.40 | −0.36 | −0.50 | −0.60 | −0.36 | −0.41 |
| Infrastructure collapse | −0.39 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.16 | −0.16 | −0.41 | −0.38 | −0.37 | −0.32 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.07 | −0.42 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.18 | −0.40 | −0.47 | −0.45 | −0.40 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.55 | −0.15 | −0.21 | −0.24 | · | −0.48 | · | −0.48 | −0.48 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.04 | −0.47 | −0.43 | · | −0.21 | −0.45 | −0.18 | −0.36 | −0.46 |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.15 | −0.33 | −0.38 | · | −0.36 | −0.34 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.20 | −0.17 | −0.41 | −0.33 | −0.46 | −0.19 | −0.02 | · |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.13 | · | −0.30 | −0.13 | −0.31 | −0.44 | −0.36 | · | · |
| Disaster in the core | −0.01 | −0.20 | −0.07 | −0.15 | −0.07 | −0.17 | −0.09 | −0.07 | −0.07 |
| Food and water shock | −0.01 | −0.06 | −0.03 | −0.07 | −0.07 | −0.08 | −0.04 | −0.06 | −0.07 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what United Kingdom is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Gainer | +66.6 | 71.7 | 5.1 | 81 | 1 | Export Capability & Sophistication 15.7 · Advanced |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +58.5 | 59.3 | 0.7 | 83 | 8 | Population Health 16 · Advanced |
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +49.0 | 49.1 | 0.1 | 79 | 18 | Industrial & Sectoral Base 15.3 · Advanced |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Gainer | +47.7 | 60.2 | 12.4 | 77 | 6 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 14 · Established |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +35.6 | 36.0 | 0.5 | 82 | 18 | Transport Infrastructure 16 · Advanced |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Gainer | +22.3 | 38.2 | 15.9 | 82 | 10 | Population Health 16 · Advanced |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Gainer | +13.0 | 16.8 | 3.9 | 83 | 14 | Transparency, Oversight & Accountability 16.3 · Advanced |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +11.0 | 15.3 | 4.3 | 78 | 72 | Technical & Vocational Skills 15 · Advanced |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.6 | 8.3 | 2.7 | 81 | 74 | Public Integrity & Anti-Corruption 15.5 · Advanced |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Mixed | +4.6 | 8.7 | 4.1 | 76 | 58 | Agriculture & Food Infrastructure 14.3 · Established |