Vulnerability and opportunity
Archetype: Holding ground. Mid-table on both: neither badly hit nor well placed. One of 43 nations with a similar pattern of results.
Well placed over 10 years: lower vulnerability, higher opportunity than the median nation.
Vulnerability · 10 years11.7rank 137 of 197 · 3 years: 11.0
Worst case−11.2%Infrastructure collapse · tail −9.5%
Opportunity · 10 years+5.7rank 62 of 197 · 3 years: +8.0
Best case+26Energy abundance · gainer in 4 of 10
Shock absorbed36%by its own buffers, across downside scenarios
Policy dividend+0.63expected index points from best practice
Breadth14 of 14scenarios in which a domain falls a band
Weakest linkSemiconductors & Advanced Computingweakest point in 3 scenarios
Main drivers of vulnerability over 10 years: Energy supply shock, AI diffusion shock, Global financial crisis. Highest exposure indicators: share of oil and gas use not met by domestic production; urban share of population; internet users as a share of population; youth unemployment rate; adult obesity rate.
Downside scenarios: load test
Change in Uruguay’s capability index under each scenario at Standard Severe and current plans, largest fall first.
Infrastructure collapse S12−0.96
Pandemic S14−0.78
Energy supply shock S09−0.71
AI diffusion shock S13−0.61
Global financial crisis S03−0.56
Chokepoint closure S05−0.51
Sovereign funding crisis S04−0.43
Legitimacy crisis S07−0.43
Geoeconomic confrontation S01−0.39
Disaster in the core S10−0.39
Single-supplier cut-off S02−0.26
Mass displacement S08−0.24
Hybrid campaign S06−0.21
Food and water shock S11−0.18
| Scenario | Exposure | Change | No response | Best practice | Rank shift | Bands lost | Weakest point |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse S12 | High 0.96 | −0.96 | −1.35 | −0.60 | ▼ 1 | 26 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 0 · Inception |
| Pandemic S14 | High 0.78 | −0.78 | −1.21 | −0.53 | 0 | 21 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 3.5 · Nascent |
| Energy supply shock S09 | High 0.80 | −0.71 | −1.03 | −0.45 | ▼ 3 | 20 | Energy Technologies 1.6 · Inception |
| AI diffusion shock S13 | High 0.71 | −0.61 | −0.96 | −0.42 | 0 | 19 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Global financial crisis S03 | High 0.63 | −0.56 | −0.94 | −0.41 | 0 | 18 | Economic Output & Productivity 7.9 · Foundational |
| Chokepoint closure S05 | Medium 0.60 | −0.51 | −0.71 | −0.31 | 0 | 16 | Maritime Power 3 · Inception |
| Sovereign funding crisis S04 | Medium 0.52 | −0.43 | −0.74 | −0.33 | 0 | 17 | Sovereign Capital & External Financial Power 6.7 · Foundational |
| Legitimacy crisis S07 | High 0.78 | −0.43 | −0.79 | −0.35 | ▼ 1 | 8 | Information Environment & Strategic Communication 4.7 · Nascent |
| Geoeconomic confrontation S01 | Medium 0.42 | −0.39 | −0.59 | −0.26 | ▲ 1 | 15 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Disaster in the core S10 | High 0.67 | −0.39 | −0.73 | −0.32 | 0 | 15 | Energy Infrastructure 8.1 · Foundational |
| Single-supplier cut-off S02 | Medium 0.37 | −0.26 | −0.37 | −0.17 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0 · Inception |
| Mass displacement S08 | Medium 0.50 | −0.24 | −0.45 | −0.19 | 0 | 9 | Water, Sanitation & Waste Infrastructure 10.6 · Transitional |
| Hybrid campaign S06 | Low 0.26 | −0.21 | −0.28 | −0.12 | 0 | 9 | Sensing, Timing & Navigation 1.5 · Inception |
| Food and water shock S11 | Low 0.23 | −0.18 | −0.31 | −0.14 | ▲ 1 | 10 | Resource Infrastructure 4.1 · Nascent |
Where each scenario lands
Change in each of the nine capability domains, in points. Darker is a larger fall.
| Scenario | CT | SI | NS | HC | II | GI | FS | PI | TI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Infrastructure collapse | −1.15 | −1.40 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −0.50 | −1.25 | −1.17 | −1.14 | −1.00 |
| Pandemic | −0.82 | −0.41 | −0.34 | −1.00 | −0.88 | −0.94 | −0.88 | −0.86 | −0.86 |
| Energy supply shock | −0.16 | −0.99 | −0.37 | −0.41 | −0.41 | −0.93 | −1.10 | −1.06 | −0.94 |
| AI diffusion shock | −0.74 | −0.34 | −0.30 | −0.89 | −0.67 | −0.92 | −0.78 | −0.43 | −0.38 |
| Global financial crisis | −0.28 | −0.28 | −0.25 | −0.56 | −0.56 | −0.70 | −0.93 | −0.80 | −0.64 |
| Chokepoint closure | −0.06 | −0.84 | −0.71 | · | −0.38 | −0.81 | −0.32 | −0.65 | −0.83 |
| Sovereign funding crisis | −0.05 | −0.36 | −0.20 | −0.50 | −0.45 | −0.62 | −0.75 | −0.45 | −0.52 |
| Legitimacy crisis | −0.31 | · | −0.63 | −0.31 | −0.73 | −1.02 | −0.84 | · | · |
| Geoeconomic confrontation | −0.49 | −0.21 | −0.19 | · | −0.49 | −0.47 | −0.49 | −0.48 | −0.72 |
| Disaster in the core | −0.03 | −0.80 | −0.24 | −0.59 | −0.27 | −0.67 | −0.36 | −0.27 | −0.27 |
| Single-supplier cut-off | −0.49 | −0.14 | −0.17 | −0.21 | · | −0.43 | · | −0.44 | −0.44 |
| Mass displacement | · | −0.24 | −0.18 | −0.49 | −0.40 | −0.56 | −0.24 | −0.03 | · |
| Hybrid campaign | −0.16 | −0.34 | −0.37 | · | −0.38 | −0.35 | · | −0.14 | −0.14 |
| Food and water shock | −0.02 | −0.20 | −0.09 | −0.25 | −0.24 | −0.25 | −0.12 | −0.20 | −0.23 |
Columns: CT Critical Technology · SI Strategic Infrastructure · NS National Security · HC Human Capital · II Information & Influence · GI Governance & Integrity · FS Financial Strength · PI Production & Innovation · TI Trade & Investment.
Upside scenarios: capture test
Net position in each upside scenario: what Uruguay is ready to capture, less what it stands to lose.
Energy abundance S16+26.3
100-day pandemic defence S24+21.4
Emerging-market breakout S20+13.8
Middle East settlement S21+13.8
Digital state leapfrog S23+7.9
Sovereign debt reset S19+5.1
Great-power détente S18+4.8
Biomedical breakthroughs S17−2.8
Superintelligence takeoff S15−9.7
Yield revolution S22−20.2
| Scenario | Position | Net | Capture | Loss | Readiness | Rank | Binding capability |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Energy abundance S16 ↗ | Gainer | +26.3 | 27.3 | 1.0 | 31 | 41 | Energy Technologies 3.2 · Nascent |
| 100-day pandemic defence S24 ↗ | Gainer | +21.4 | 26.0 | 4.6 | 38 | 58 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Emerging-market breakout S20 ↗ | Gainer | +13.8 | 21.0 | 7.2 | 49 | 48 | Investment Attraction & Projection 9 · Transitional |
| Middle East settlement S21 ↗ | Gainer | +13.8 | 18.4 | 4.6 | 44 | 66 | Alliances & Security Cooperation 7.5 · Foundational |
| Digital state leapfrog S23 ↗ | Mixed | +7.9 | 16.5 | 8.6 | 35 | 34 | Connectivity, Cyber & Trust Technologies 3.4 · Nascent |
| Sovereign debt reset S19 ↗ | Mixed | +5.1 | 7.0 | 1.8 | 61 | 80 | Financial Regulation & Integrity 11.5 · Transitional |
| Great-power détente S18 ↗ | Mixed | +4.8 | 18.0 | 13.2 | 43 | 80 | Export Capability & Sophistication 8 · Foundational |
| Biomedical breakthroughs S17 ↗ | Mixed | −2.8 | 20.0 | 22.8 | 40 | 98 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |
| Superintelligence takeoff S15 ↗ | Mixed | −9.7 | 13.2 | 22.9 | 24 | 64 | Semiconductors & Advanced Computing 0.7 · Inception |
| Yield revolution S22 ↗ | Loser | −20.2 | 9.7 | 29.9 | 38 | 189 | Biotechnology & Health Technologies 5 · Nascent |